Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State football predictions: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State by the football model that picks winners.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State football predictions / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

A pair of Big 12 rivals at 0-1 in conference play and watching their playoff hopes dwindle are looking to get back on track as No. 23 Kansas State hosts No. 20 Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Both these Big 12 title hopefuls were on the receiving end of some tough losses a week ago; the Cowboys to Utah at home, and the Wildcats got thrashed by BYU in a 38-9 decision.

These offenses are almost opposites of each other: Oklahoma State is 15th in passing and 115th in rushing, while Kansas State is 117th in passing and 16th in rushing offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State predictions

The models are giving the road team a slight edge in this week’s matchup.

Oklahoma State comes out as the expected winner in 52.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Kansas State as the projected winner in the remaining 47.2 percent of sims.

Oklahoma State is expected to be just 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

That would still be enough to pull off the upset.

That’s because Kansas State is a 4.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 55.5 points.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -200 and for Oklahoma State at +170 to win outright.

Bettors are almost evenly divided on how to interpret the game.

A slight majority, 51 percent, of bets project that Kansas State will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 49 percent of wagers suggest Oklahoma State will stay within the line or win the game in an upset.

Oklahoma State is fifth among Big 12 teams with a 10.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects that Kansas State will win 7.7 games and has a 5.8 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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