Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Oklahoma State meets Kansas State in this Week 5 football game, with our updated prediction.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

A pair of ranked Big 12 rivals both coming off losses and 0-1 in conference play look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State welcomes No. 20 Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of victory heading into BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as it allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered 3 turnovers, coming into this week ranking just 117th nationally in passing production per game.

Oklahoma State is posting almost 310 yards in the air per game, but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity, as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last 3 games and is averaging just over 3 yards per carry in that time.

The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category coming into this weekend.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should be watching out for as Kansas State and Oklahoma State square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction, preview

1. Run the ball. Ollie Gordon is college football’s reigning Doak Walker Award winner but has been missing in action this season, with 258 total yards and 4 touchdowns, was held to under 3 yards per carry the last 2 games, and is yet to run for 50 yards against an FBS defense.

He’s yet to adapt as opponents load the box against him, and the Wildcats could present another formidable challenge. They rank 16th in FBS in rush defense allowing just over 83 yards per game and are 17th in surrendering just 2.75 yards per carry from opposing backs.

2. Ditto for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards. As a whole, the team is posting 6.5 yards per attempt, 6th nationally. 

One area of relative weakness? They have just 4 total rushing TDs this year, in part because the offense is a middling 62nd in third-down production, moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.

3. Pokes can sling it. As the Cowboys’ ground game has stalled, Alan Bowman is picking up the slack, leading an aerial attack that is 15th in passing production, averaging almost 311 yards per game and is hitting nearly 63 percent of his attempts.

But the Wildcats could throw him out of rhythm, boasting a strong front seven alignment that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State’s 7.8 TFLs per game are 14th in FBS, and Brendan Mott is 12th in the country with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are giving the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma State is projected to win the game in the majority 52.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The model projects a very close game, as Oklahoma State is expected to be 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field.

More ... Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Kansas State is a 4.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 57.5 points per game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at +164 and for Kansas State at -200 to win outright.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction

In a game loaded with early Big 12 title implications, it should come down to whichever team runs the ball better and owns the time of possession battle.

Bowman has the arm and the receivers to credibly test the Wildcats’ secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and reduce the Cowboys’ offense to one dimension.

Kansas State’s capacity to limit ground gains up front combined with its potent rushing capacity should be enough to pull this out, but it will be close.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Kansas State wins 30-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

How to watch Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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