Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State in this Week 5 football game.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Big 12 rivals, both coming off a disappointing loss in conference play, return to action this weekend looking for their first league win as No. 20 Oklahoma State visits No. 23 Kansas State on Saturday.

A loss at BYU handed the Wildcats their first loss of the season, while a battle at home against Utah resulted in the first L on the Cowboys’ schedule as each jockey for position in the early Big 12 championship picture.

What can we expect in this matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma State and Kansas State compare in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction

The simulations are siding with the home team in this Big 12 tilt.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will emerge victorious, defeating Oklahoma State by a projected score of 30 to 27.

The model says the Wildcats will beat the Cowboys by a projected 2.7 points.

And it gives K-State a narrow 57 percent chance of outright victory.

Point spread

Kansas State is a 5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -210 and for Oklahoma State at +175 to win outright.

And it set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oklahoma State +5
• Kansas State to win -210
• Bet over 54.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models take a different view of the game.

College Football Power Index is a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

It projects that Oklahoma State is the slight favorite to win the game, coming out ahead in 52.9 percent of its most recent simulations.

That leaves Kansas State as the projected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

Oklahoma State is just 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field, according to the FPI’s metrics.

More ... Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: What the analytics say

The Cowboys are fifth among Big 12 teams with a 10.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.3 games this season, according to the index.

That model suggests Kansas State has a 5.4 percent chance of making the playoff and will win 7.7 games.

How to watch Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks