Oklahoma vs. Auburn football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Oklahoma vs. Auburn by the football model that picks winners.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn football predictions / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

A new-look SEC game brought to us by realignment kicks off from The Plains this weekend between teams looking for their first conference win, as No. 21 Oklahoma hits the road against Auburn in this Saturday’s Week 5 action.

We’ll see a new quarterback under center for the Sooners after Michael Hawkins, Jr. was named the starter after Jackson Arnold struggled in last week’s ugly loss against Tennessee, at the helm of an offense that is 111th throwing the ball and 101st rushing nationally.

Auburn has hardly fared much better on offense, rotating between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown, the duo who combined for 4 interceptions in a loss to Arkansas last weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn predictions

The models currently favor the Sooners on the road, but by a very slim margin.

Oklahoma is the projected winner in the majority 57.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

Oklahoma is 2.7 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that would be enough for the Sooners to cover the spread.

That’s because Oklahoma is a 2.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 45.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahomma at -125 and for Auburn at +105 to win outright.

The majority of bets project the Sooners will handle the Tigers in their SEC road opener.

Almost 8 in 10 bettors, 79 percent, expect Oklahoma to win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 21 percent of wagers project that Auburn will either win in an upset or stay within the line.

Oklahoma is forecasted to defeat Auburn by a projected score of 27 to 23 based on the implied score when taking the point spread and total into consideration.

Auburn will win 6.5 games this season and has a 0.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Sooners will win 6.5 games and have a 6.2 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks