Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Oklahoma and Auburn meet in this new-look SEC football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn Prediction / John Reed-Imagn Images

Coming off an uninspiring SEC debut and making a change at quarterback, No. 21 Oklahoma takes a trip to The Plains to square off against Auburn in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

OU’s offense ground to a halt in the face of Tennessee’s defensive front a week ago and quarterback Jackson Arnold fumbled away, quite literally, many of his team’s chances in what became a 10-point loss at home in the program’s first-ever SEC game.

As a result, the Sooners are going with Michael Hawkins, Jr. under center this week, and maybe going forward if he plays well in his first start. He went 11 of 18 for 132 yards and a touchdown after coming in for the benched Arnold last week against the Vols, giving the offense whatever life it had in that game.

Auburn’s offense is still very much a work in progress itself, swapping between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown at quarterback, but both struggled in a loss to Arkansas last week, and the team owns a 3-point loss to Cal in which Thorne had 4 picks.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Oklahoma and Auburn meet in this new-look SEC football tilt, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction: What to watch for

1. Who is Michael Hawkins? Coming off a dismal offensive showing in its SEC debut last week, Oklahoma is pulling the trigger on a new quarterback, swapping former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold and his case of fumblitis for the true freshman option.

OU’s concerns on offense are not just limited to Arnold, of course, but Hawkins did give the unit a jolt, leading its only touchdown drive while passing for 132 yards and running for 22 more. Still, he can only go as far as his line will let him, and the early returns on the Sooners’ protection are not great.

He has the mobility to skirt some of those issues and can extend plays, but Hawkins can only really emerge as the guy for OU if he can develop a rhythm, hit his mid-range throws early, and show he can read the defense and out-smart the coverages.

2. Strength vs. weakness. Auburn’s offense isn’t exactly humming lately, either, as it works through two quarterbacks in Payton Thorne and Hank Brown who threw a combined 4 interceptions in a loss to Arkansas a week ago. 

Early on this season, the Tigers looked exponentially better in this phase, throwing 10 TD passes and no picks in the first 2 games, but since then have 3 scores and 8 picks in 2 losses. 

Auburn has the second-worst turnover margin in the country (minus-2.5) and with 14 turnovers, while Oklahoma’s superb defense is No. 1 nationally with 12 takeaways and 3rd in FBS at plus-1.75 per game and second-best at plus-7 overall.

3. Auburn on the ground. With its passing offense still undergoing an identity crisis, the Tigers want to exploit a potential offensive advantage by running the ball behind Jarquez Hunter.

The senior tailback has averaged 7.1 yards per carry and scored twice, helping Auburn to run for about 50 yards more per game than OU has thus far.

But, again, the issue is turnovers. Hunter and Damari Alston have each fumbled twice this season and could struggle finding adequate running lanes against a Sooner front that ranks 27th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and can limit gains near the line.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Sooners to beat the Tigers this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is projected to win the game in the majority 56.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

Auburn checks in at 43.2 percent likelihood to win.

Oklahoma is expected to be 2.8 points better than Auburn on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Auburn is a 1 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Auburn at -115 and for Oklahoma at -104 to win outright.

Most bettors are taking Oklahoma to upset, as 76 percent of wagers forecast the Sooners will earn their first win in the SEC this weekend.

The remaining 24 percent of bets expect Auburn will win the game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction

Sluggish offense, haphazard pass protection, and stultifying quarterback play are the order of the day between these new SEC rivals, but there’s one big advantage on the field.

Oklahoma is still playing some physical, hard-nosed defense around the line of scrimmage. It has the bodies to swarm Auburn’s protection, throw its QBs out of what rhythm they do have, and will be in position to take advantage when a turnover is probable.

Auburn emerging as the favorite during the week reflects the trepidation that many bettors have about the Sooners’ offense, especially as five receivers have been listed as out, but OU is still the superior defense in the trenches, and that’s what counts the most winning games in the SEC.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oklahoma wins 23-16
• In an upset
• And hits the under

More ... Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Auburn

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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