Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Oklahoma vs. Auburn in this Week 5 college football game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Conference realignment brings us a new-look SEC football matchup this weekend from The Plains between two schools each looking for their first conference win of the season, as No. 21 Oklahoma hits the road against Auburn in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

The Sooners’ SEC debut didn’t go as hoped after getting swamped by Tennessee’s defense at home and not scoring a touchdown until the fourth quarter, and head coach Brent Venables has announced a change at quarterback, with Michael Hawkins, Jr. going under center this weekend.

Auburn’s offense is something of a work in progress itself, swapping between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown so far, although both accounted for 4 interceptions in a loss to Arkansas in the SEC opener a week ago.

What can we expect from this matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Auburn compare in this SEC football game on Saturday.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction

Expect something of an upset this week, as far as the simulations are concerned, with a surprising projection for this game.

SP+ predicts that Auburn will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 25 to 24 and to win the game by an expected 1.5 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 54 percent chance of outright victory against the Sooners.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Oklahoma is a 2 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 45.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -125 and for Auburn at +105 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Auburn +2
• Auburn to win +105
• Bet over 45.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical tools differ on who is the favorite to win the game.

College Football Power Index is a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index is still going with Oklahoma, which comes out the expected winner in the majority 57.4 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Auburn the projected victor in the remaining 42.6 percent of sims.

Oklahoma is projected to be 2.7 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

The Sooners are ninth among SEC teams with a 6.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 6.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Auburn a 43.1 percent chance to become bowl eligible and projects it will win 5.3 games.

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Auburn

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

More ... Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction: What the analytics say

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