Oklahoma vs. Houston score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Oklahoma Sooners welcome the Houston Cougars in this SEC vs. Big 12 matchup on the Week 2 college football schedule.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Houston Cougars Prediction / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

This weekend brings us an SEC vs. Big 12 matchup as the No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners look to start out 2-0 as they welcome the Houston Cougars in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

Oklahoma trounced Temple in a 51-3 decision last week's opener, in which Jackson Arnold threw 3 of his 4 touchdown passes to transfer wide receiver Deion Burks as the Sooner backs combined for 220 yards and a 6.1 yard per carry average on the ground.

Projected to be the second-worst team in the preseason Big 12 football rankings, Houston dropped its season opener, and the first game for head coach Willie Fritz, as UNLV pulled off a 20-point victory in which the Cougars ran for just 38 yards and Donovan Smith threw for 135 yards and 2 interceptions.

What can we expect in the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Houston compare in Saturday's game.

Oklahoma vs. Houston prediction

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Sooners to hold off their Big 12 challenger this week.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Houston by a projected score of 45 to 11 and to win the game by a projected 33.9 points.

The model gives the Sooners a near-perfect 98 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Oklahoma is a 28.5 point favorite against Houston, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 49.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -10000 and for Houston at +2200.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oklahoma -28.5
• OU to win -10000
• Bet over 49.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also strongly favor the Sooners to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 96.7 percent of the computer's simulations, while Houston comes out the expected winner in the remaining 3.3 percent of sims.

The index forecasts Oklahoma to be 26.9 points better than Houston on the same field in both teams' current composition, not quite enough to cover this line.

Oklahoma is projected to win 7.8 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, and has a 2.3 percent chance to win the SEC championship.

Houston sits in last place among Big 12 teams on the index's 134-team rankings, projected to win 2.1 games with a mere 1.5 percent chance to finish bowl eligible.

Oklahoma vs. Houston prediction

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 6:45 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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