Oklahoma vs. Navy score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Oklahoma vs. Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Oklahoma vs. Navy score prediction 2024 / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Oklahoma and Navy meet in the postseason in the 2024 edition of the Armed Forces Bowl. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

This has been a season Oklahoma would prefer to forget, stumbling to a 6-6 overall record, but punctuated by a stunning win over Alabama that played a role keeping the latter out of the College Football Playoff.

Navy started out undefeated at 6-0 before losing three out of four games late in the year, rebounding to upset hated rival Army as an underdog this year.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Sooners and Midshipmen meet this week?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Oklahoma and Navy compare in college football’s Armed Forces Bowl game.

Oklahoma vs. Navy score prediction

As expected, the models are more confident in the Power Four team against the Group of Five contender, but by a more narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Navy by a projected score of 29 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.7 points.

The model gives the Sooners a 68 percent chance of outright victory against the Midshipmen.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Oklahoma vs. Navy odds, how to pick the game

Oklahoma is a 2.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -152 and for Navy at +126 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oklahoma -2.5
• Sooners to win -152
• Bet over 43.5 points

Bettors are split down the middle over how to project this matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Navy is getting 50 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or keep the final margin under three points in a loss.

The other 50 percent of wagers project Oklahoma will cover the narrow point spread in a victory.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Sooners over the Midshipmen.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is the big favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 75.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves Navy as the presumptive winner in the remaining 24.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Oklahoma is projected to be 9.3 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch Oklahoma vs. Navy

When: Fri., Dec. 27
Where: Fort Worth, Tex.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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