Oklahoma vs. South Carolina football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Oklahoma vs. South Carolina by the football model that picks winners.

Oklahoma vs. South Carolina football predictions / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

A new-look SEC matchup comes to us this weekend as Oklahoma returns home against South Carolina in a battle of teams needing a conference victory in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from a football model that picks winners.

Oklahoma dropped to 1-2 in SEC play after a 31-point loss to Texas that once again exposed the lack of any offensive momentum despite a change in quarterback to Michael Hawkins, Jr., as the Sooners rank 123rd out of 134 FBS teams in passing output.

South Carolina had Alabama on the back foot for much of last week’s game at Tuscaloosa, but couldn’t hold on late, falling to 1-3 in conference games and losing 3 of its last 4 overall, ranking 105th nationally in passing production with 187 yards per game on average.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oklahoma vs. South Carolina predictions

As expected, the models give a considerable edge to the Sooners over the Gamecocks.

Oklahoma is projected to win the game outright in a majority 65.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 34.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Sooners came out ahead in 13,140 of the index’s simulations, compared to the Gamecocks winning out in the other 6,860 predictions.

But the models forecast a very close game on the scoreboard between these new SEC rivals.

Oklahoma is projected to be just 2.7 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Sooners to cover the spread against the Gamecocks.

That’s because Oklahoma is a 1.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 40.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -125 and for South Carolina at +105 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bets are giving the Sooners a decided edge over the Gamecocks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oklahoma is getting 61 percent of bettors’ confidence to win the game at home and cover the spread.

The other 39 percent of wagers project South Carolina will pull off the upset, or lose the game by a single point.

Oklahoma vs. South Carolina projections

Oklahoma is ninth among SEC teams with a 6.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 6.8 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives South Carolina a win total prediction of 5.9 games and a 63.3 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season.

Oklahoma is forecasted to be 11.9 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, according to the FPI model, good for No. 20 nationally.

South Carolina is expected to be 9.2 points better than opponents in that category, ranking No. 26 among 134 FBS teams by the model’s calculation.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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