Oklahoma vs. Tulane score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Oklahoma vs. Tulane in this Week 3 college football game.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Tulane Green Wave Prediction / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tulane looks to extend its road win streak, now at 10 games and the third-best active mark in the country behind Georgia and Michigan, in a marquee road matchup against No. 15 Oklahoma in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Sooners head coach Brent Venables expects a real challenge from the Green Wave, a preseason Group of Five playoff hopeful that kept a ranked Kansas State team on the ropes last weekend and only losing on some late-game mistakes in what otherwise would have been a statement upset.

Now, Tulane looks to avoid falling under .500 on the road against an Oklahoma side that played close against Houston a week ago and can ill afford any slip-ups before embarking on a brutal SEC schedule that includes a date against a formidable Tennessee team next weekend.

Tulane is top-35 nationally in scoring offense, passing averages, and rushing production with an offense led by quarterback Darian Mensah, a 71 percent passer, and tailback Makhi Hughes, who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Oklahoma is 109th nationally in passing and 79th in rushing.

What do the analytics forecast for the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Tulane compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Oklahoma vs. Tulane score prediction

The simulations currently favor the home team to win against this AAC challenger on Saturday.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Tulane by a projected score of 34 to 18 and to win the game by an expected 15.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Sooners a strong 83 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Oklahoma is a 13.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -550 to win outright and for Tulane at +400.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oklahoma -13.5
• Sooners to win -550
• Bet over 46.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Sooners to take down the Green Wave this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is projected to win the game in the majority 77.7 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Tulane comes out the expected winner in the remaining 22.3 percent of sims.

The index forecasts that Oklahoma will be 11.9 points better than Tulane on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover this line.

Oklahoma will win 6.8 games this season, according to the model's most recent forecast, with a 15.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, ranking seventh among SEC teams.

Tulane is estimated to win 8.5 games by the computer's projections, and sits second among AAC teams with a 9.4 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, behind leader Memphis.

Oklahoma vs. Tulane game time

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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