Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ole Miss and Florida meet in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction 2024 / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

What you should watch for as No. 9 Ole Miss hits the road against Florida on Saturday, with our updated prediction for this notable late-season SEC game.

Ole Miss was just 1-2 in SEC play not long ago, but has pulled out three-straight critical victories, culminating in a signature win against Georgia at home that has the Rebels squarely in the College Football Playoff picture entering this weekend.

Florida comes in at 5-5, on the verge of bowl eligibility, and fresh off a stunning upset at home against LSU, looking to serve up some of the same for Ole Miss.

What can we expect as the Gators welcome the Rebels in this late-season SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch as Ole Miss and Florida square off in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction: What you need to know

1. At the line. Ole Miss is playing some forceful football up front right now, leading FBS with 46 sacks and 103 tackles for loss, the only team nationally in triple digits and with over 10 negative plays created per game, and is tops in the SEC with 230 quarterback pressures.

Florida’s protection unit has markedly improved over the course of this season. After allowing 39 sacks last season, the Gators have allowed just 13 this year, the second-fewest among SEC teams.

2. Going deep. Ole Miss comes into the game ranked 2nd nationally in passing output with 366 yards per game and 11 yards per attempt and could find some throwing lanes against a Florida secondary dealing with major injuries, as three of its top coverage cornerbacks are out this week.

The Rebels’ vertical game should get a major boost, too, with the expected return of wide receiver Tre Harris, who, despite not having played since Oct. 12 with an injury, still actually leads the SEC in receiving yardage.

Florida’s best chance to disrupt Ole Miss’ passing game is to set its pass rush against quarterback Jaxson Dart and prevent him from gaining any early rhythm. The Gators could be up to the task after recording 7 sacks against a strong LSU front line last week.

3. Lagway’s return. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway made his anticipated comeback in last week’s win against LSU after suffering a hamstring injury in the Georgia game, going 13 of 26 for 226 yards and a touchdown.

He didn’t have a turnover, either, which will be crucial for him again to keep the offense on schedule against the Rebels’ front.

Head coach Billy Napier says Lagway hasn’t missed any reps and has been progressing physically from the injury, a good sign for the Gators, given the quarterback’s mobility will be a vital component for the offense in avoiding a dominant pass rush.

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is an 11.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -480 and for Florida at +360 to win outright.

What the analytics say

Most football prediction models suggest a big win for the Rebels against the Gators this week.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Ole Miss is the big favorite on the index, projected to win the game in 78.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 21.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 11.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction: What the analytics say

Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction: Who wins?

Florida is playing much better at home this season and coming off its best performance of the year in a win against LSU, but its big weakness corresponds to the Rebels’ big strength.

Those holes in the Gators’ secondary will ultimately conspire against the team as it wears on, going against an Ole Miss passing attack that is among the very best in the country.

And the Rebels’ front seven should eventually wear down the Gators’ protection, but not before Lagway does a little damage by evading that pressure with his escapability and makes some plays.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ole Miss wins 34-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Ole Miss vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Gainesville, Fla.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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