Ole Miss vs. Arkansas football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas in this Week 10 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas football prediction / Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

No. 19 Ole Miss hits the road looking to avoid falling under .500 in SEC play against resurgent Arkansas on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

Ole Miss improved to 2-2 in conference games after getting past Oklahoma and with no margin for error regarding its playoff chances as we move into November football.

Arkansas (5-3, 3-2) is two spots ahead of the Rebels in the SEC standings and coming off a dominant win against Mississippi State in which it had 673 yards and forced 5 takeaways.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas predictions

This week, the simulations favor the Rebels against the Razorbacks in this SEC matchup.

Ole Miss is expected to win the game outright in 74.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels came out ahead in the majority 14,840 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Hogs edged out Ole Miss in the other 5,160 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a somewhat close game for the Rebels on the road.

Ole Miss is projected to be 9.4 points better than Arkansas on the same field in the projected simulations of the game, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread against the Razorbacks.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 6.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -250 and for Arkansas at +202 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a majority of bettors expect the Razorbacks will make this close against the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arkansas is getting 56 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will win the game and cover the 6.5 point spread.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas future predictions

Ole Miss is seventh among SEC teams with an 18.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Rebels a win total prediction of 9 games this season.

Arkansas will win 6.8 games in 2024, according to the index’s calculations.

That’s good enough for a 98.1 percent chance to be eligible for a bowl game this postseason.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
T-11. Clemson/Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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