Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ole Miss and Arkansas meet in this Week 10 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

A notable SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as Arkansas welcomes No. 19 Ole Miss on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the game, with our updated prediction.

What can we expect as the Rebels and Razorbacks meet in this SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Ole Miss and Arkansas meet in this Week 10 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. Arkansas is top-30 nationally in rushing production, led by Ja’Quinden Jackson’s 10 touchdowns, and averaging 5.26 yards per carry, and is eighth as a team with 22 rushing touchdowns. But the unit will be challenged by an Ole Miss run defense that ranks No. 1 nationally, allowing just 77 yards per game, 2.13 yards per carry, and only 1 touchdown.

2. Turnovers. Arkansas is 5-0 this season when it wins or ties the turnover margin with opponents, and is 0-3 when the other team has more takeaways. Ole Miss has been careful with the ball, handing it over just 8 times all year, but 3 of those came in the team’s 2 losses.

3. Battle at the line. Arkansas comes into the game ranked 76th in FBS with 17 sacks allowed and 2.13 per game on average, and is 79th with 5.63 tackles for loss surrendered per game and 45 in total, while Ole Miss’ superb front seven alignment is 2nd in the country with 33 sacks recorded and 4.13 per game on average.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas splits

Ole Miss has averaged 21.7 points better than its opponents so far in games this season, while Arkansas has fared 3.1 points better than the competition in 2024.

Those numbers have diverged over the last three games, as Ole Miss has played closer, averaging 11 points better than opponents in that time, while Arkansas averages 4.7 points better.

Those trends also change when considering the venue: Arkansas is 3 points worse than opponents on average at home, while Ole Miss is 18.3 points better when on the road.

Ole Miss’ offense vs. Arkansas’ defense

Ole Miss ranks 21st nationally with 34.3 points per game on average, compared to an Arkansas defense that is 63rd in surrendering 24.9 points per game this season.

The Rebels are 3rd in FBS with 504.9 total yards per game while the Razorbacks are 67th in surrendering 380.4 yards to opponents.

Ole Miss ranks 28th among FBS teams by averaging 0.474 points per play. Arkansas is 63rd nationally in surrendering 0.359 points per play.

Ole Miss is No. 8 in FBS by averaging 7 yards per play on offense, while Arkansas is 65th nationally on defense, allowing 5.5 yards per play to opponents.

On third down, Ole Miss ranks 48th nationally by converting 41.38 percent of its chances, while the Arkansas defense is 73rd in the country by allowing 40.4 percent conversion.

In the red zone, the Rebels rank No. 81 with 82.35 percent success, compared to a Razorback defense that is allowing points on 80.8 percent of chances, ranking 44th in FBS.

Arkansas’ offense vs. Ole Miss’ defense

Arkansas comes into the game ranking No. 54 in the country by scoring 28 points per game, while the Ole Miss defense is 4th in FBS allowing just 12.6 points on average.

In total production, the Razorbacks average 453.1 yards per game on average, ranking 14th nationally, while the Rebels are 16th in FBS allowing 312 yards from opponents.

On a per snap basis, the Hogs are 64th in the nation by averaging 0.378 points per play, and will be challenged by an Ole Miss group that is No. 1 nationally allowing 0.161 points per play.

Ole Miss also owns an advantage on a yard per play average, ranking No. 3 nationally in surrendering 4 yards on every snap, while Arkansas is 29th averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense.

In third down situations, the Razorbacks are No. 32 in FBS by converting on 43.75 percent of their chances, compared to a Rebels defense that is No. 7 in allowing 29.57 percent conversion success.

And the Rebs are strong in the red area defensively, too, ranking No. 2 by allowing opponents to score points on 60 percent of attempts, while Arkansas is just 110th nationally from inside the 20.

What the analytics say

Most other analytical models favor the Rebels over the Hogs in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is expected to win the game outright in 74.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 9.4 points better than Arkansas on the same field in the projected simulations of the game, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is a 6.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -250 and for Arkansas at +202 to win outright.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins?

Arkansas is playing a balanced and surprisingly explosive brand of offense in SEC games, aided in large part by a mobile quarterback who can extend plays, but this line will struggle to consistently give Taylen Green a clean pocket in the face of the Rebels’ expert pass rush.

And in an effort to prevent Ole Miss from picking apart its vulnerable secondary, Arkansas will want to run the ball early and often to test that strong run-stop and take time off the clock.

It’s been a winning formula for the Razorbacks, who are 5-1 when running the ball 33 or more times and 0-2 when running less.

Turnovers could prove the determining factor in this one: Ole Miss has lost the turnover margin in just one game, while the Hogs are minus-3 over the last month.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ole Miss wins 27-21
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Ole Miss vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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