Ole Miss vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas in this Week 10 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas score prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

SEC football gets underway this weekend as No. 19 Ole Miss hits the road against Arkansas. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss moved to 2-2 in SEC play after a win over Oklahoma at home and hopes to avoid falling under .500 in conference games and keep its playoff hopes relatively intact in November.

Arkansas improved to 3-2 in conference play after smashing Mississippi State, compiling 673 yards in that win and sitting two games above .500 overall, at 5-3 in a must-win year for head coach Sam Pittman.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Rebels and the Razorbacks meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Arkansas compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Razorbacks this week.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Arkansa by a projected score of 34 to 19 and to win the matchup by an expected margin of 14.4 points.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 82 percent chance of outright victory regardless of margin.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas picks, odds

Ole Miss is a 6.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -250 and for Arkansas at +202 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -6.5
• Rebels to win -250
• Bet under 53.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are taking the other side of this game, and expect the Hogs to challenge the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arkansas is getting 56 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to come within a touchdown while losing.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will win the game by at least a touchdown and cover the spread.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas splits

Ole Miss has averaged 21.7 points better than its opponents so far in games this season, while Arkansas has fared 3.1 points better than the competition in 2024.

Those numbers have diverged over the last three games, as Ole Miss has played closer, averaging 11 points better than opponents in that time, while Arkansas averages 4.7 points better.

Those trends also change when considering the venue: Arkansas is 3 points worse than opponents on average at home, while Ole Miss is 18.3 points better when on the road.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models favor the Rebels over the Hogs in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is expected to win the game outright in 74.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 9.4 points better than Arkansas on the same field in the projected simulations of the game, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas future predictions

Ole Miss is seventh among SEC teams with an 18.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Rebels a win total prediction of 9 games this season.

Arkansas will win 6.8 games in 2024, according to the index’s calculations.

That’s good enough for a 98.1 percent chance to be eligible for a bowl game this postseason.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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