Ole Miss vs. Duke score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss and Duke in the 2025 Gator Bowl game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Duke score prediction 2025 / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Ole Miss and Duke square off in the 2025 Gator Bowl game on the second day of the year. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss was a College Football Playoff contender in the latter part of the season, rebounding from a 1-2 start in SEC play to get back in the playoff race, but a late loss to Florida ended those hopes.

This will be the last time we see quarterback Jaxson Dart in a Rebels uniform. Over the last three years, Dart has compiled over 10,000 passing yards with 80 all-purpose touchdowns.

Maalik Murphy set a Duke single-season record with 26 touchdown passes, but the quarterback will transfer away from the school for next season, as will tailback Star Thomas, who ran for over 800 yards and 7 touchdowns this year.

That leaves the Blue Devils with third-stringer Henry Belin under center. He’s thrown all of one pass this season, but won his only career start, against NC State back in 2023.

Throwing the ball will be crucial for Duke, which comes into the game ranked just 127th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing output with just 97 yards per game on average.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Blue Devils and Rebels meet in the postseason?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Duke compare in college football’s Gator Bowl game.

Ole Miss vs. Duke score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the SEC contender over the ACC challenger in this game, and by the widest margin of any bowl game this postseason.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Duke by a projected score of 33 to 14 and will win the game by an expected margin of 18.9 points in the game.

The model gives the Rebels a dominant 88 percent chance of outright victory over the Blue Devils.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

-

Gator Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Ole Miss is a 17.5 point favorite against Duke, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -1000 and for Duke at +640 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -17.5
• Rebels to win -1000
• Bet under 51.5 points

Bettors are almost evenly split on how to interpret the game when looking at the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Ole Miss is getting 51 percent of bets to cover this huge point spread to win the Gator Bowl.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Duke will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, keep the final margin under 17 points in a loss.

-

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Rebels over the Blue Devils in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is the heavy favorite according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 83.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

Duke isn’t projected to win outright, but it did come out on top of the Rebels in the remaining 16.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

When taking an average of all 20,000 of the computer’s simulations, Ole Miss is projected to be 14 points better than Duke on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

-

How to watch the 2025 Gator Bowl Game

When: Thurs., Jan. 2
Where: Jacksonville, Fla.

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks