Ole Miss vs. Florida football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ole Miss vs. Florida in this Week 13 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ole Miss vs. Florida football prediction 2024 / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

A notable late-season SEC matchup kicks off from The Swamp this weekend as No. 9 Ole Miss travels to Florida. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Ole Miss is still firmly in the College Football Playoff picture this week coming into this road game with some pressure to stay on the winning side in a very competitive field.

Florida improved to 5-5 with a signature upset victory over LSU last week and has a chance to move to .500 in SEC play if it can pull off another one against the Rebels.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Florida predictions

As expected, the computers are siding with the Rebels over the Gators in this matchup.

Ole Miss is the expected favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 78.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 21.9 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels come out on top in 15,620 simulations of the game, while the Gators edged out Ole Miss in the other 4,380 predictions of the matchup.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 11.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 10.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -375 and for Florida at +290 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Rebels will handle the Gators with some ease, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 11 points in a loss.

Ole Miss vs. Florida future projections

Ole Miss is fifth among SEC teams with a 66.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff this year, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Rebels will win 9.7 games this season.

Florida has a good chance to make a bowl game, according to the models.

They forecast the Gators have an 84.5 percent chance to become bowl eligible this year, with a win total projection of 6 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Gainesville, Fla.

Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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