Ole Miss vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Florida by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Florida score prediction 2024 / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

A notable late-season SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 9 Ole Miss puts its playoff hopes on the line against Florida. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Both teams are coming off signature wins and hoping to take another important step forward late in the season. 

Ole Miss dominated Georgia at home two weeks ago to move back into playoff contention, and Florida upset rival LSU last Saturday and improved to 5-5 in an important moment for Billy Napier’s embattled coaching tenure.

What do the analytics models suggest for when the Rebels and the Gators meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Ole Miss and Florida compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Florida score prediction

The models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Gators, and by a more than two-touchdown margin this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Florida by a projected score of 35 to 19 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 84 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Ole Miss vs. Florida odds, how to pick the game

Ole Miss is a 10.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -430 and for Florida at +330 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -10.5
• Rebels to win -430
• Bet under 55.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a strong majority of bettors who expect the Rebels to handle the Gators this weekend, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 11 points in a loss.

Ole Miss vs. Florida splits

Ole Miss comes into this week ranked No. 6 nationally in scoring margin per game, averaging out 22.4 points better than its opponents this year when adding up the points in the wins and losses.

Florida has fared 2.4 points worse than its opponents on average in 2024, ranking 80th in FBS.

Those margins have stayed relatively close over the last three games.

Ole Miss has been 20.7 points better than the competition in that time, while Florida has averaged 11.7 points worse over that span.

When playing on the road this year, the Rebels have been 21.8 points better than opponents, while the Gators have been 2.6 points better than the competition when playing at home.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also expect the Rebels to take care of the Gators.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is the expected favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 78.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 21.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 11.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Gainesville, Fla.

Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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