Ole Miss vs. Kentucky football predictions: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky by the computer model that picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky predictions / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Ole Miss makes its SEC debut this weekend at home after plowing through its non-conference slate in a matchup against Kentucky in the early Week 5 action on Saturday.

The early returns on the Rebels are extremely positive. They rank 1st nationally with 423 passing yards per game and 55 points per game on average, and are 12th in rushing capacity.

Kentucky can boast of playing then-No. 1 Georgia close in a 1-point loss a few weeks ago, but it’s still 0-2 in SEC play and expected to make it a third loss against the favored Rebs.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky predictions

As expected, the models are favoring Ole Miss to take care of UK in this one.

So far, the Rebels are projected to win the game in the overwhelming 90.4 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves the Wildcats as the forecasted winner in the remaining 9.6 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 20.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field, according to the models.

That would be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread in this week’s game.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 17.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -900 and Kentucky at +600 to win outright.

The book set the total at 52.5 points for the game.

A majority of bettors, 56 percent, suggest the Rebels will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 44 percent of wagers predict the Wildcats will either win in an upset, or stay within the line in a loss.

Ole Miss is fourth among SEC teams with a 75.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Kentucky will win 5.2 games and is 12th in the SEC with a 0.2 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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