Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: Who wins, and why?

Our prediction for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky in this Week 5 college football game and SEC opener for the top-10 ranked Rebels.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky Prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

After plowing through everything on its non-conference schedule, Ole Miss plays its SEC opener this weekend against unranked Kentucky in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Despite playing then-No. 1 Georgia very close in a 1-point loss two weeks ago, the Wildcats are scoring a mere 22.5 points per game, thanks in part to an aerial attack that is 121st nationally with 153 yards on average with Brock Vandagriff at quarterback.

As a result, Kentucky is 0-2 in SEC play thus far, and looking around the sportsbooks, it’s not expected to pick up its first conference win against a Rebels team that has outscored its opposition by a combined 220 to 22 in the first month of the season.

Against the likes of Furman, MTSU, Wake, and Georgia Southern, Jaxson Dart is completing almost 80 percent of his throws for 12 touchdowns and 2 picks while rushing for 3 more touchdowns on an offense that ranks No. 1 nationally with 8.85 yards per play and 670 yards per game.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Ole Miss and Kentucky square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction, preview

1. Establish the run. Lane Kiffin had very high praise for Kentucky’s front line defense, comparing it to an NFL-caliber unit, and it did perform admirably well in containing Georgia’s skill threats to minimal gains two weeks ago.

Kentucky has allowed just 76.8 rushing yards per game so far, good for third-best among SEC teams, but will be tested by a Rebels backfield good for 248 rushing yards on average, a number good for 12th among all FBS schools and whose top three backs are good for 7.23 yards per carry.

2. Testing UK’s secondary. College football’s most productive quarterback resides in Oxford, Miss., as Jaxson Dart leads all passers with 1,554 yards, the most by an SEC signal caller through 4 games since 1998, and has 12 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. He lines up against a Wildcat defense that has allowed just 2 passing TDs so far.

3. Can Brock throw it? Brock Vandagriff’s relative inability to generate consistent air yardage has cratered Kentucky’s offensive averages so far, ranking 105th nationally in scoring output.

Now, as the Rebels’ No. 1 ranked rush defense contest UK’s backs, it falls on the QB to make up the difference. He hasn’t thrown a TD pass since the opener, but is coming off a season-best 237 yards in a big win against Ohio.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models predict that Ole Miss will handle Kentucky in the SEC opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in the majority 90.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Kentucky as the expected winner in the remaining 9.6 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 20.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is a 15.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -720 and for Kentucky at +500 to win outright.

Most bettors expect the Rebels to handle the Wildcats, based on the latest spread consensus picks.

Ole Miss is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 42 percent of wagers predict that Kentucky will either upset, or more likely, will keep the game within the big line.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction

Sure, the first four games of the season have been cupcakes and you expect the Rebels to dominate in those matchups, but there is still something to the margin of victory they’ve won those games in.

Kentucky won’t roll over, as it’s already proven to have the discipline and tenacity to credibly threaten even some of the best skill players in the country, and it will challenge Ole Miss up front and bother its ground game in the early going.

But where the Rebels can’t run, they can throw. Where they can’t throw, they can run. Wherever the Wildcats zig, Ole Miss can zag.

The Rebels already have 100 plays of 10 or more yards, the most of any team nationally, and have the variety and speed to counter whatever pressure Kentucky can throw at them early.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ole Miss wins 31-16
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More: Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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