Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky in this Week 5 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

SEC rivals square off from Oxford this weekend as No. 6 Ole Miss plays its conference opener against unranked Kentucky in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

While the Rebels have bulldozed everything in their path during the non-conference slate, the Wildcats should prove somewhat more of a challenge after they played Georgia close recently.

Still, UK is 0-2 in SEC play and in dire need of a good showing, but it’ll be a challenge against an Ole Miss side that ranks 1st nationally in passing and 2nd in scoring offense.

What can we expect in the matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Kentucky compare in this SEC football game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Rebels against the Wildcats.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 37 to 17 and will win the game by an expected 20 points.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Ole Miss is a 17.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which sets the total at 53.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -800 and for Kentucky at +550 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -17.5
• Rebels to win -800
• Bet over 53.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Rebels will win the game handily.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss comes out the projected winner in 90.5 percent of the computer’s updated simulations, while Kentucky is favored in the remaining 9.5 percent of sims.

The model projects that Ole Miss will be 20.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field, also enough for the Rebels to cover the spread here.

More ... Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: What the analytics say

Ole Miss is fourth among SEC teams with a 74.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Kentucky will win 5.2 games and has a 41 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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