Ole Miss vs. LSU football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ole Miss vs. LSU by the football model that picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. LSU football prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

SEC football returns this weekend as No. 13 LSU welcomes No. 9 Ole Miss in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game by an expert model that picks winners.

LSU comes off its open weekend sitting at 1-0 in SEC play after knocking off South Carolina a few weeks ago but its defense will embark on the toughest test of its season thus far.

Ole Miss is 2nd in FBS in passing output, 3rd in scoring defense, and 10th in scoring offense, averaging 44 points per game behind the play of Jaxson Dart and the Rebels’ superb skill threats.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction

So far, the models are siding with the road team in this SEC matchup.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in the majority 67.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 32.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels are projected to win outright in 13,540 of the index’s 20,000 simulations, while the Tigers come out ahead in the other 6,460 predictions for the game.

And it’s expected the teams will play a close game.

Ole Miss is projected to be 6.8 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Rebs to cover the spread.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 3.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 63.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -165 and for LSU at +140 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A majority of bettors expect the Rebels to take care of business on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Most bets -- 58 percent of them -- project Ole Miss will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers expect LSU will either win in an upset or keep the game within the line.

The game’s implied score suggests a narrow win for the Rebels against the Tigers.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Ole Miss will defeat LSU by a projected score of 34 to 30 in the game.

Ole Miss is fourth among SEC teams with a 54.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives LSU a win total projection of 7.5 games and a 13.8 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

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How to watch Ole Miss vs. LSU

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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