Ole Miss vs. LSU score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. LSU in this Week 7 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. LSU score prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

SEC football kicks off under the lights this weekend in a key battle between ranked teams as No. 9 Ole Miss hits the road against No. 13 LSU in Death Valley in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

LSU sits at 1-0 in SEC play after a win over South Carolina a few weeks ago and is on a four-game win streak since the season-opening loss to USC, sitting at No. 7 nationally in passing production behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, but 96th in FBS in rushing output so far.

Ole Miss is hoping to avoid falling under .500 in conference games after a surprise loss at home to Kentucky two weeks ago, but the team rebounded with a statement victory over the Gamecocks and is 2nd in FBS in passing output, 10th in scoring, and 3rd in scoring defense overall.

What do the analytics suggest about this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and LSU compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. LSU score prediction

So far, the models are giving a slight advantage to the road team this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat LSU by a projected score of 34 to 28 and will win the game by an expected 6.2 point margin.

The model gives the Rebels a 65 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Ole Miss vs. LSU odds, picks

Ole Miss is a 3.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -165 and for LSU at +140 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -3.5
• Rebels to win -165
• Bet under 62.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Rebels to take care of business on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

About 52 percent of bets forecast that Ole Miss will beat LSU and cover the spread in the process.

The remaining 48 percent of wagers expect LSU will either win the game in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also side with the Rebels against the Tigers this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win outright in 67.3 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 32.7 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 6.8 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

That would also be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread.

More ... Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction: What the analytics say

Ole Miss is fourth among SEC teams with a 54.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives LSU a win total projection of 7.5 games and a 14 percent shot at the playoff.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. LSU

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

More ... Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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