Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ole Miss and LSU meet in this Week 7 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

SEC football returns under the lights this weekend as No. 13 LSU hosts No. 9 Ole Miss in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

LSU comes off its open weekend sitting at 1-0 in SEC play after knocking off South Carolina a few weeks ago but its defense will embark on the toughest test of its season thus far.

Ole Miss is 2nd in FBS in passing output, 3rd in scoring defense, and 10th in scoring offense, averaging 44 points per game behind the play of Jaxson Dart and the Rebels’ superb skill threats.

What can we expect as the Rebels pay a visit to the Tigers this weekend?

Here is what you should watch for as Ole Miss and LSU square off in primetime, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction: What to watch for

1. At the line. Ole Miss comes into the game playing some inspired defense up front, buoyed by elite transfers like Princely Umanmeilen and Walter Nolen, and is ranked No. 1 nationally with 63 tackles for loss and 24 sacks. LSU’s protection is elite, especially on the edges, having allowed just 2 sacks this year, the 4th fewest in FBS.

2. On the ground. LSU wants to run the ball more behind lead back Caden Durham to stabilize its offense, and while he’s averaging 8.4 yards per rush, he’ll run into a strong Ole Miss rush defense, a unit that ranks No. 1 in FBS allowing 63.7 rushing yards per game and just 1.79 yards per carry from opposing backs.

3. Going deep. Both these secondary units could struggle against aggressive quarterbacks on the other side. Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart should find angles against an LSU defense that is worst in the SEC by allowing 236 passing yards per game, and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has thrown at least 2 TDs in every game.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models currently favor the Rebels in this matchup against the Tigers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win outright in a majority 67.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 32.4 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 6.8 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is a 3.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -165 and for LSU at +140 to win outright.

Most bettors are siding with the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A majority of bets -- 52 percent -- currently expect Ole Miss to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers favor LSU to either keep the game within the line or to win outright in an upset at home.

Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction: Who wins?

Believe the hype: it really is that loud and insane inside Tiger Stadium at night, and in a game between ranked SEC rivals looking to avoid a costly loss that would derail their playoff hopes, you can expect the LSU faithful will bring the noise.

But can LSU bring the pass defense? The secondary is still highly vulnerable, especially against a stable of Ole Miss receivers working with a passer of Dart’s precision and who can rip off chunks of yards at any moment.

And it’s an open question as to whether LSU has enough bodies on its defensive front who can credibly test a Rebels offensive line that has some weaknesses of its own.

Whatever pressure the Rebels can bring up front against Nussmeier -- and they can -- LSU has the bodies to maintain its quarterback’s composure most of the night, and he has the receivers who can get behind the Ole Miss secondary to come up with just enough.

LSU is 12-0 in Saturday night games under Brian Kelly, and is 108-15 in home night games in this century.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 37-34
• In an upset
• And hits the over

How to watch Ole Miss vs. LSU

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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