Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, 2024 Egg Bowl prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ole Miss and Mississippi State reunite in the 2024 Egg Bowl, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, 2024 Egg Bowl Prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Rivalry Week brings us one of college football’s best in-state animosities, as the 2024 Egg Bowl features Ole Miss playing host to Mississippi State. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss started 1-2 in SEC play, but played its way back into College Football Playoff consideration with a signature victory over Georgia that impressed the selection committee.

Then, it lost on the road to the unranked Gators, a shocking upset that appeared to dash those hopes entirely.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, is 0-7 in SEC play and inching towards the end of a debut season for head coach Jeff Lebby that everyone just wants to forget and move on from.

What can we expect as the Rebels welcome the Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl?

Here’s what you should watch for as Ole Miss faces off against Mississippi State, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction: What to watch for

1. At the line. Ole Miss fields one of the nation’s best defensive fronts, leading the country with 4.5 sacks per game and over two dozen over the last month, and is tops in FBS with 108 tackles for loss forced, the only team in triple digits, and No. 1 with 9.82 negative plays created per game.

That’s a serious matchup problem for Mississippi State, whose offensive line surrendered 3.2 sacks per game, ranking 122nd in the nation, and is 109th among 134 FBS teams by allowing 6.64 tackles behind the line and 73 total this season.

2. Bulldogs on the ground. MSU’s offense has struggled in just about every facet of the game, but has been running the ball a little better with Davon Booth working from the backfield. He’s averaged more than 6 yards per carry in 4 of his last 5 games and eclipsed 100 yards in his last 2 appearances.

Getting him going will be crucial for the Bulldogs to extend drives and keep the Rebels’ offense off the field, but Booth is running against the nation’s No. 2 ranked run-stop, a unit that allows just 2.39 yards per carry and all of 6 rushing touchdowns this season.

3. What it means. This game was supposed to be a coronation of sorts with Ole Miss almost certainly clinching a spot in the 12-team playoff, but last week’s loss at Florida may have played this team out of College Football Playoff contention altogether.

Or did it? Not to get anyone’s hopes up, but the Rebels are still kind of, sort of, very technically speaking, within striking distance at No. 14 in the committee’s rankings.

A big win here could help, but Ole Miss needs a lot of outside confusion, too, including some serious chaos in the ACC title race, for a start. It would take more than that, but there are six teams ahead of the Rebels who can do some losing in the next two weeks that leaves a tiny sliver of a path open.

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is a 24.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the Egg Bowl.

FanDuel set the total at 61.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -3500 and for Mississippi State at +1280 to win outright.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction: Who wins?

Do the Rebels come out with guns blazing, angered from the Florida loss and hoping to give the selection committee something else to consider?

Or do they start slow and uninspired feeling their season has been lost?

Strange things happen in the Egg Bowl, and playing at home with one last chance to make a statement suggests the former, especially given the obvious matchup advantages Ole Miss has over its rival.

Mississippi State allows nearly 41 points per game in SEC play and doesn’t have the bodies in coverage to pose a credible threat to the Rebels’ skill arsenal.

Nor can the Bulldogs honestly withstand the kind of pressure that Ole Miss will bring from its dominant front seven.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ole Miss wins 41-17
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert football model

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

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How to watch the Egg Bowl

When: Fri., Nov. 29
Where: Oxford, Miss.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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