Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for the 2024 Egg Bowl as Ole Miss and Mississippi State renew their rivalry, from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction 2024 / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Ole Miss hosts Mississippi State this Black Friday in the Egg Bowl, one of college football’s great rivalry games. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss might have played itself out of the College Football Playoff after a stunning touchdown loss at Florida last weekend, but there is still technically a path, albeit narrow and depending on several outside scenarios, provided it wins this game.

Mississippi State has nothing left to play for except honor, and the privilege of putting the final touches on keeping their rivals out of the playoff, coming in at 0-7 in the SEC basement.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Rebels and Bulldogs meet in the Egg Bowl?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Mississippi State compare in this Week 14 college football rivalry game.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction

As expected, the models are siding heavily with the Rebels over the Bulldogs in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 46 to 10 and to win the game by an expected margin of 35.6 points.

The model gives the Rebels a near-perfect 99 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds, how to pick the Egg Bowl game

Ole Miss is a 26.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this week’s game.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the matchup (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -4000 and for Mississippi State at +1400 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -26.5
• Rebels to win -4000
• Bet under 61.5 points

A plurality of bettors expect the Bulldogs to keep things closer against the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Mississippi State is getting 67 percent of bets to either win the game outright, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 27 points in a loss.

The other 33 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will win the game and cover the generous point spread.

Computer prediction

In addition to the SP+ system, most other football analytical models also favor the Rebels over the Bulldogs in a big way.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in the overwhelming 94.8 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Mississippi State as the expected winner in the remaining 5.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 25.4 points better than Mississippi State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State 2024 Egg Bowl prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch the 2024 Egg Bowl game

When: Fri., Nov. 29
Where: Oxford, Miss.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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