Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State in the 2024 Egg Bowl from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State football prediction 2024 / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Black Friday brings us one of college football’s most passionate rivalry games as Ole Miss welcomes Mississippi State in the 2024 Egg Bowl. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Ole Miss may have played itself out of College Football Playoff contention after a surprising loss at Florida last weekend, but there’s still some sliver of hope in the event of some late-season chaos around the country.

Mississippi State sits squarely in the SEC basement, 0-7 in conference play and with just 2 wins overall in a season first-year coach Jeff Lebby would like to forget.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss is the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in the overwhelming 94.8 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Mississippi State as the expected winner in the remaining 5.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels come out on top in 18,960 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Bulldogs edge out Ole Miss in the other 1,040 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 25.4 points better than Mississippi State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Rebels to cover the big line against the Bulldogs.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 26.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book set the total at 61.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -4000 and for Mississippi State at +1400 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Bulldogs to keep things closer against the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Mississippi State is getting 67 percent of bets to either win the game outright, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 27 points in a loss.

The other 33 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will win the game and cover the generous point spread.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State future projections

Ole Miss plunged in the College Football Playoff projections after the Florida loss, with a mere 6.7 percent chance to qualify for the 12-team format, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That’s good enough to rank sixth among SEC teams in that category, behind South Carolina (20.1%), Alabama (29.6%), Tennessee (78.8%), Georgia (94.5%), and Texas (97%).

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch the 2024 Egg Bowl game

When: Fri., Nov. 29
Where: Oxford, Miss.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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