Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical football model that picks winners offers a new prediction for Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma in this Week 9 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma football prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

SEC football returns to The Grove this weekend as No. 18 Ole Miss looks to get back to .500 in conference play against reeling Oklahoma on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks winners.

Oklahoma is 1-3 in SEC play and has been outscored 60 to 12 in the last 2 games with just a 6 point win at Auburn the only bright spot in the school’s debut season in the SEC.

Ole Miss was stunned at home by Kentucky in its first conference game and dropped a close overtime decision against LSU, losing its 2 league dates by a combined 6 points.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma predictions

As expected, the index is siding strongly with the Rebels against the Sooners this week.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 88 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 12 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels came out ahead in 17,600 of the index’s simulations, while the Sooners edged out Mississippi in the other 2,400 predictions.

And the index foresees a dominant margin on the scoreboard for the Rebels over the Sooners, too.

Ole Miss is projected to be 17.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 20.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -1600 and for Oklahoma at +800 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a plurality of bettors expect the Rebels to handle the Sooners with some ease, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Ole Miss is getting 60 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 40 percent of wagers project Oklahoma will either win the game outright in an upset, or lose by fewer than 3 touchdowns.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma future predictions

Ole Miss fell to seventh in the SEC with a 22.5 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Rebels a win total prediction of 8.9 games this season.

Oklahoma has a 61.1 percent chance to qualify for a bowl game this year, according to the index’s calculations.

And the Sooners are expected to win 5.9 games by the model’s forecast.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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