Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to watch for as Ole Miss and Oklahoma meet in this Week 9 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Prediction / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as Oklahoma hits the road against No. 18 Ole Miss with both teams looking for a needed conference victory. Here’s what you should watch for as the Sooners and Rebels meet in college football’s Week 9 action, with our prediction for the game.

Oklahoma is 1-3 in SEC play and has been outscored 60 to 12 in the last 2 games with just a 6 point win at Auburn the only bright spot in the school’s debut season in the SEC.

Ole Miss was stunned at home by Kentucky in its first conference game and dropped a close overtime decision against LSU, losing its 2 league dates by a combined 6 points.

What can we expect as the Sooners and Rebels meet in this SEC matchup?

Here’s what you should be watching for as Ole Miss and Oklahoma meet in this Week 9 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Prediction: What to Watch

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss ranks No. 2 nationally in total offensive production, averaging more than 560 yards per game and is 3rd in the country with 7.68 yards per play.

It ranks No. 8 in the country by averaging 41.4 points per game on offense and is 12th nationally with 36 total touchdowns scored. OU has allowed 17 touchdowns (36th) and 21.3 points per game (41st).

Jaxson Dart leads college football’s No. 4 passing offense, averaging over 360 yards in the air with 15 touchdowns against 3 interceptions while averaging 10.5 yards per pass (No. 4).

The Rebels are 26th nationally with just over 200 yards per game while averaging 5.16 yards per carry with 21 total touchdowns on the ground.

Henry Parrish has 9 of the team’s rushing scores while leading the team with 612 yards and averaging 5.8 yards per attempt.

Dart has 3 rushing touchdowns off 59 carries and Matt Jones has scored 3 times with 222 yards and posting 5.2 yards per run.

Tre Harris has 6 of Ole Miss’ 15 receiving touchdowns off 59 receptions for 987 yards while averaging nearly 17 yards per catch.

Antane Wells has scored 4 times and posts nearly 22 yards per grab off 17 catches, and Jordan Watkins is the only other receiver with more than 1 touchdown, scoring twice off 13 catches.

Ole Miss is 32nd nationally in third down offense, converting 39 out of 87 chances (44.83 percent) against Oklahoma’s 22nd ranked third down defense, allowing 34 of 107 opportunities (31.78 percent).

The Rebels rank No. 79 among 134 FBS teams in red zone offense, but are still productive in scoring range, coming away with points on 29 of 35 chances (82.86 percent), and 21 of those scores are touchdowns (60 percent).

OU is 18th nationally in red zone defense, surrendering points on 14 of 19 opportunities (73.68 percent) with 7 of those scores being touchdowns (36.84 percent).

Ole Miss ranks No. 6 nationally in expected points added per play (.262), while Oklahoma is 42nd in defensive EPA (.078).

The Rebels have allowed 17 total sacks this season, ranking 91st nationally, and give up 2.43 sacks per game, ranking 94th in FBS.

Oklahoma is 3rd in the country with 25 total sacks on defense and 4th with 3.57 sacks per game recorded against opponents.

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma has struggled in offensive production this season, ranking No. 128 among 134 FBS teams with 288.1 total yards per game and is third-worst nationally with just 4.31 yards per play.

OU’s quarterbacks have combined to average 115th in the country with 176 passing yards per game with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and are 128th with 5.8 yards per pass on average.

Oklahoma is 107th nationally in scoring offense, averaging 22.1 points per game and is 105th in FBS with 18 total touchdowns scored.

Jackson Arnold is expected to return as the Sooners’ starting quarterback this week. He’s completing 57.2 percent of his pass attempts for 763 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while being sacked 18 times and averaging 5.5 yards per attempt.

Oklahoma is 114th nationally in rushing production, averaging 112 yards per game, is 124th with 3.07 yards per carry, and is 109th with 7 rushing touchdowns this season.

The Sooners rank 127th among 134 FBS teams in third down offensive output, converting just 28 of their 101 opportunities for a 27.72 percent success rate.

That unit lines up against a Rebels third down defense that is among the nation’s best, ranking 4th in FBS by surrendering just 29 conversions against 113 chances (25.66 percent).

Oklahoma is successful when in scoring position, however, coming away with points on 19 of its 21 red zone chances, good for over 90 percent with 13 of those scores (62%) being touchdowns.

Ole Miss is 3rd in red zone defense, allowing points on 10 of 16 opportunities, and only 4 of those scores went for touchdowns, the nation’s fewest (25 percent).

OU is second-worst in the country by allowing 29 sacks this season and has surrendered 4.14 sacks against opponents per game on average.

The Rebels are strong defensively, averaging No. 7 nationally with 24 total sacks recorded and are averaging 3.43 sacks per game.

Oklahoma has allowed 56 tackles for loss this season, ranking 127th in FBS, and gives up 8 negative plays per game on average (129th).

Ole Miss is 2nd nationally with 66 tackles for loss recorded on defense and 9.43 negative plays generated against opponents per game.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Rebels over the Sooners by a good margin.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in 88 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 12 percent of sims.

The computer projects Ole Miss will be 17.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is a 20.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -1450 and for Oklahoma at +810 to win outright.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Prediction: Who Wins?

Oklahoma’s offense is a basketcase and even a switch back to the relatively more experienced quarterback will be too little, too late, given a ton of injuries at wide receiver and some very meager protection.

The Sooners’ offensive line will struggle to give Arnold any room to work in the face of a dynamic Ole Miss front seven rotation led by linebacker Chris Paul.

But whatever Oklahoma can’t do offensively, its defense can make up for, at least in the early stages, boasting an alignment of capable tacklers with the closing speed to credibly challenge the Rebels’ perimeter speed and can limit gains on the ground in a way that could throw this offense off its momentum.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ole Miss wins 34-14
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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