Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma in this Week 9 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Oklahoma Sooners score prediction / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

A new-look SEC football matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 18 Ole Miss looks to rebound against struggling Oklahoma in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ole Miss slid to 1-2 in SEC play this season with losses to Kentucky and LSU, but still commands the No. 8 scoring offense and 3rd ranked passing attack in college football with its College Football Playoff hopes in serious limbo heading into November.

Oklahoma is playing some of the country’s worst offense and undergoing a second quarterback change, but its solid defense is a bright spot for the team otherwise.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Rebels and Sooners meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Ole Miss compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Sooners in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 34 to 14 and to win the game by an expected margin of 19.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma picks, odds

Ole Miss is a 20.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -1600 and for Oklahoma at +860 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oklahoma +20.5
• Ole Miss to win -1600
• Bet under 49.5 points

Most bettors take a different view of the Rebels against the Sooners, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous spread in the process.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Oklahoma will either win in an upset, or keep the game under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma splits

Ole Miss has been 28.3 points better than opponents when playing at home on average so far this season.

But over the last three games, the Rebels have been 6 points better on average, as that number took a hit following two close losses.

Oklahoma is 17 points worse than its opponents over the last three games on average.

But the Sooners are 12.5 points worse than the opposition when playing on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models are siding with the Rebels over the Sooners in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game outright in the majority 87.8 percent of the computer's most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 12.2 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 17.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the model's latest forecast.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma future predictions

Ole Miss is seventh among SEC teams with a 21.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Rebels a win total prediction of 8.9 games this season.

Oklahoma will make a bowl game with 61.7 percent likelihood, according to the index’s calculations.

And the computers give the Sooners a win total projection of 5.9 games in 2024.

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks