Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. South Carolina in this Week 6 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

SEC football returns this weekend and already with No. 12 Ole Miss under some pressure to get things right on the road against South Carolina in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions from the expert model that picks winners.

Ole Miss plowed through its non-conference schedule, but its top-ranked offense was stymied at home by Kentucky’s defense in the SEC opener last week, then allowing a late touchdown and missing a tying field goal that resulted in an 0-1 start in conference play.

South Carolina projects to play some strong defense up front again this week against the Rebels, as it did against that UK team and again in a close loss to LSU a few weeks ago, and should get quarterback LaNorris Sellers back after rehabbing an injury.

What do the experts think of this week’s SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and South Carolina compare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction

As expected, the simulations are siding decisively with the Rebels over the Gamecocks.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 32 to 21 and to win the game by an expected margin of 11.5 points.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 76 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina odds

Ole Miss is a 9 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -340 and for South Carolina at +270 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ole Miss -9
• Rebels to win -340
• Bet under 53.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Rebels will earn a victory this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in the majority 75.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in the other 24.7 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 10.3 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

A slight majority of bets are siding more with the Gamecocks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

About 60 percent of bettors expect South Carolina to keep the game within the 9 point line or to upset the Rebels outright.

The other 40 percent of wagers expect Ole Miss will win the game and cover the spread.

Ole Miss is fifth among SEC teams with a 40.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives South Carolina a win projection total of 6.5 games and a 76.6 percent chance to make a bowl game.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. South Carolina

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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