Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ole Miss visits South Carolina in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

Our updated prediction for the Ole Miss vs. South Carolina game. / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 12 Ole Miss looks to rebound from its first loss with a road trip to South Carolina in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss bulldozed its non-conference schedule but started 0-1 in SEC play after a surprising loss at home to Kentucky in which the team’s top-ranked offense was slowed and the defense allowed a late touchdown.

South Carolina is a mixed bag offensively, averaging 40th in FBS in rushing production but is just 107th nationally in passing output, sitting at 3-1 after a big win over Akron and with a loss to LSU and a victory over Kentucky in SEC conference play.

What can we expect in this week’s game?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ole Miss and South Carolina face off in this Week 6 college football matchup, with our updated prediction.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction: What to watch

1. Gamecocks up front. South Carolina’s defensive front presents a formidable challenge for the Ole Miss offense and can bring some serious speed and pressure off the edges. 

Kyle Kennard has 5.5 sacks and Dylan Stewart has another 2.5, while Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart was sacked 4 times last week.

As a team, the Gamecocks have 14 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, and come into the game ranked 4th among SEC teams with 161 passing yards allowed and have surrendered 17 points on average. 

2. Rebels on the attack. Despite last week’s struggles, this is still a potent offense led by a quarterback who is averaging 363 yards per game and has 13 touchdowns on the year.

And despite Carolina’s overall defensive success, there could be some holes on the back end after the unit allowed long scoring plays to the likes of Old Dominion and Akron.

Ole Miss should find some room to send its receivers in the deeper portion of the field with the likes of Tre Harris, the offense’s only real hope last week and the nation’s most productive pass catcher, in addition to former Gamecock transfer Antwane Wells, to test this secondary.

If Dart and the Rebel blockers can adapt to Carolina’s speedy pass rush early on by getting the ball out quickly, they can force this defense to spread out and diminish some of the Gamecocks’ advantages near the line.

3. Stop the QB. It’s either LaNorris Sellers or Robby Ashford for Carolina at quarterback, and both are a real challenge for the Rebels’ front seven tacklers, each presenting as credible rushing threats who can extend plays and create their own with a battery of scripted and unscripted runs.

Sellers built a two-touchdown lead against LSU before leaving with an ankle injury, and there’s some question around if he’ll be healthy. If not, Ashford is more than capable, passing for 243 yards and running for another 133 yards last week.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models still side with the Rebels to take care of the Gamecocks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in the majority 75.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That left South Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 24.8 percent of sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 10.3 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Ole Miss is a 9 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -350 and for South Carolina at +280 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most wagers project the Gamecocks will make this a game against the Rebels, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A solid majority -- around 60 percent -- of bets predict that South Carolina will either upset Ole Miss outright, or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 40 percent of bets expect the Rebels will win the game and cover the spread.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins?

If the first four games of the season felt like the Rebels’ ceiling, last week felt like their floor. The reality of this team is somewhere in the middle.

Carolina boasts two mobile quarterbacks who can give any defense some real headaches, but they’re still playing behind a somewhat suspect line that is susceptible to pressure at times.

Ole Miss comes into the game ranked third nationally in sacks recorded and 1st in FBS in tackles for loss, which should cut into some of Sellers’ or Ashford’s success creating plays.

And while the Gamecocks will create plenty of pressure off the edges and throw Dart out of his rhythm early on, the Rebels have more than enough outlets for the quarterback to dump quick passes to and who can skirt around these midfield defenders and churn out yards after the catch.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ole Miss wins 27-21
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. South Carolina

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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