Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Ole Miss vs. South Carolina by the football model that picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina football prediction / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

An important SEC football matchup is set for Saturday, as No. 12 Ole Miss looks to rebound from last week’s loss, going on the road against South Carolina in college football’s Week 6 action.

Ole Miss was a favorite against Kentucky in its SEC opener, but its then top-ranked offense didn’t have enough answers and allowed a late touchdown in a game that puts the team’s playoff chances in a measure of doubt early on in the season.

South Carolina dominated Akron last time out, but played LSU close in a loss the week before, and this game is the first of four straight against ranked opponents that are some of the SEC’s most formidable teams.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction

As expected, the models are strongly favoring the Rebels to rebound this week.

Ole Miss is projected to win the game in 75.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in 24.6 percent of the sims.

Ole Miss is projected to be 10.3 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 9 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -350 and for South Carolina at +280 to win outright.

A majority of bets are predicting the Gamecocks to keep this game a little closer, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

South Carolina is getting 60 percent of bets to either keep the game within 9 points, or to beat the Rebels in an upset.

The remaining 40 percent of wagers project that Ole Miss will win the game and cover the spread.

Ole Miss is fifth among SEC teams with a 41 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index estimates the Rebels are 21.8 points better than an average team on a neutral field.

That model gives South Carolina a 3.2 percent shot at the playoff and projects it will win 6.5 games.

And it says the Gamecocks will be 9.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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