Oregon vs. Boise State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Oregon Ducks host the Boise State Broncos in this Week 2 college football game.

Oregon Ducks vs. Boise State Broncos Prediction / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Heading into this season, the Boise State Broncos have been hyped as the Group of Five's potential playoff hopeful, and this week, they'll meet a stiff test on the road against the Oregon Ducks in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

Oregon's opener was close thanks in part to the team's subpar rushing production, with its backs combining for just 2.9 yards per carry on average and 107 total yards, with Jordan James being the highlight, running for 95 yards and a touchdown on 6.3 yards per attempt.

For its part, the Ducks' run defense did its part, holding the Vandals to a 2.5 yard per run average and 49 total yards. That unit lines up against Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos' star back and arguably college football's most gifted rusher, who had 267 yards and 6 touchdowns in last week's opener.

Boise State's defense could be suspect, however, after allowing Georgia Southern to score 45 points, surrendering 322 yards in the air and 4 yards per carry on the ground.

What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how the Oregon Ducks and Boise State Broncos compare in Saturday's game.

Oregon vs. Boise State prediction

As expected, the simulations currently favor the Ducks to hold off their Mountain West challengers.

SP+ predicts Oregon will defeat Boise State by a projected score of 41 to 21 and to win the game by an expected 20.5 points.

The model gives the Ducks a strong 90 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Oregon is a 19.5 point favorite against Boise State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 61.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -1250 and for Boise State at +740.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oregon -19.5
• Ducks to win -1250
• Bet over 61.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also strongly favor the Ducks to take down the Broncos this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 79.8 percent of the computer's simulations, while Boise State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 20.2 percent of sims.

But the index projects a closer game, as it suggests Oregon is 10.2 points better than Boise State on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover this line.

Oregon will win 9 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, and it sits third among Big Ten teams with a 10.3 percent chance to win the conference championship.

Boise State sits in pole position to win the Mountain West with a 48.9 percent chance, according to the index, which projects the team will win 9.5 games this season.

Oregon vs. Boise State game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 7 p.m. Pacific
TV: Peacock

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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