Oregon vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Oregon vs. Illinois by the football model that picks winners.

Oregon vs. Illinois football prediction / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

 A new-look Big Ten game brought to us by conference realignment finds two ranked teams looking to avoid costly losses as No. 1 Oregon hosts No. 20 Illinois on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert football model that picks winners.

Oregon moved to No. 1 in the rankings this week after Texas lost to Georgia and following the team’s signature victory over Ohio State two weeks ago.

Illinois is coming off a statement win of its own, taking down Michigan last weekend, and moving to 3-1 in Big Ten play this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oregon vs. Illinois predictions

As expected, the Ducks are big favorites against the Fighting Illini by the model’s calculations.

Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 91.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 8.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Ducks won out in 18,280 of the index’s projections, while the Fighting Illini came out ahead in the other 1,720 predictions.

The index also projects a comfortable victory for the Ducks on the scoreboard, too.

Oregon is projected to be 21.2 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover a big spread against the Illini.

That’s because Oregon is a 21.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 59.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -2000 and for Illinois at +980 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A big majority of bettors expect the Fighting Illini to make it close against the Ducks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Illinois is getting 72 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset or, more likely, to keep the game under 3 touchdowns.

The other 28 percent of wagers project Oregon will win the game and cover the big spread.

Oregon vs. Illinois future projections

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 86.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model predicts the Ducks will win 11.4 games this season.

Illinois ranks fifth in the Big Ten with a 6.1 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

And the index gives the Illini a win total prediction of 8.4 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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