Oregon vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Oregon vs. Illinois in this Week 9 college football game from an expert model that picks winners.

Oregon vs. Illinois score prediction / Abigail Dollins/Statesman Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A new-look Big Ten football matchup kicks off on the West Coast as newly-ranked No. 1 Oregon returns home in a clash against No. 20 Illinois in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Oregon moved to 4-0 in Big Ten play after shutting out Purdue on the road last week and still has that 1-point win over Ohio State in its back pocket as it seeks out playoff consideration this season.

Illinois is 3-1 in conference play following a signature victory against Michigan a week ago but isn’t getting a ton of confidence from the models or the bookies against the Ducks’ high-powered roster.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Ducks and Illini meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Illinois compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Oregon vs. Illinois score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the Ducks by a favorable margin against the Illini.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 37 to 17 and to win the game by an expected margin of 20.4 points.

The model gives the Ducks a strong 90 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Oregon vs. Illinois picks, odds

Oregon is a 22 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -2000 and for Illinois at +1000 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Illinois +22
• Oregon to win -2000
• Bet under 54.5 points

Most bettors are taking that side of the action, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Illinois is getting a strong majority 71 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the score within the generous line.

The other 29 percent of wagers project the Ducks will win the game and cover the spread.

Oregon vs. Illinois splits

Oregon has been 8.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home this season.

And that average has increased to the Ducks being 19 points better than the opposition when playing in its last three games overall.

Illinois has proven 3.5 points worse than its opponents when playing away from home in 2024.

Although that mark improves to 0.3 points better than opponents in its last three games.

Oregon is 19.3 points better than opponents overall this season, while Illinois is 5.8 points better than its competition in 2024.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also give the Ducks a good chance against the Illini.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 91.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 8.6 percent of sims.

Oregon is projected to be 21.1 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Oregon vs. Illinois future predictions

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 86.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Ducks a win total prediction of 11.4 games this season.

Illinois has a 6.2 percent shot at making the 12-team playoff, according to the index’s calculations.

That includes a win total projection of 8.4 games in ‘24 for the Illini.

How to watch Illinois vs. Oregon

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks