Oregon vs. Michigan football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan in this Week 10 college football game.

Oregon vs. Michigan football prediction / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Defending national champion Michigan plays host to new title-favorite No. 1 Oregon on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Oregon stayed perfect with a dominant victory over Illinois and has outscored its last two opponents 73 to 9 behind a passing attack that averages exactly 300 yards per game.

Michigan improved to 3-2 in Big Ten play after taking down Sparty last week but is yet to score more than 28 points in a game since the opener, ranking 130th in passing and 110th in scoring.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oregon vs. Michigan predictions

As expected, the simulations favor the Ducks over the Wolverines in this matchup.

Oregon is expected to win the game in the majority 77.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 22.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Ducks came out ahead in 15,560 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wolverines edged out Oregon in the other 4,440 of the predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect things to be closer than some projections would indicate.

Oregon is projected to be 11.3 points better than Michigan on the same field in the latest simulations of the game, and of both teams head to head, according to the model’s forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks to cover the spread.

That’s because Oregon is a 15.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -820 and for Michigan at +550 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Ducks to dominate the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 66 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 34 percent of wagers project Michigan will either win outright in an upset, or will lose the game by 15 or fewer points.

Oregon vs. Michigan future predictions

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 87.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Ducks a win total prediction of 11.6 games this season.

Michigan ranks seventh in the Big Ten with a 0.1 percent shot at the playoff, but should be in the postseason, at 88.3 percent likely to play in a bowl game.

The index forecasts UM will win 6.3 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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