Oregon vs. Michigan prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Oregon and Michigan meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten football gets a makeover this weekend as new conference contender, No. 1 Oregon hits the road against Michigan at the Big House in college football’s Week 10 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the game, with our updated prediction.

Michigan improved to 3-2 in Big Ten play after a win over Michigan State, but is still playing some of the nation’s most anemic offense and its playoff chances are pretty much toast.

Oregon, on the other hand, moved into the No. 1 ranking nationally after a signature, 1-point win over Ohio State and is still one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams.

What can we expect as the Ducks and Wolverines square off in this new-look Big Ten clash?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Oregon and Michigan meet in this Week 10 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Oregon vs. Michigan prediction: What to watch for

1. Air it out. Michigan famously can’t, ranking 129th out of 134 FBS teams in passing output and 109th in scoring, and it’s up to Davis Warren to find some holes in an Oregon pass defense that is among the best, allowing under 57% completion, just 5.9 yards per attempt, and only 4 touchdowns in the air all season. These tacklers are fast, hit hard, and can close down your throwing lanes before you even know they’re open.

2. On the ground. Amid the Ducks’ other offensive success, running the ball is still a question mark of sorts, as they rank just 61st nationally with 167 yards per game, and it will be key establishing the run against a Michigan defense that is 15th against the rush and plays a physical brand of football on the interior that could challenge Oregon’s inside protection.

3. Test Michigan deep. Oregon is 12th in FBS in passing output, completing 76% of its passes with over 9 yards per play thanks to Dillon Gabriel’s partnership with some stealthy receivers, and they could find some room against the Wolverines’ pass defense.

Michigan’s secondary has changed up its strategy from week to week, sometimes closing down those deep lanes in zone coverage, which had the effect of other teams churning out medium passing gains. Other times, it would bring more pressure near the line, with the result of their getting beat deep. 

Oregon has the variety and the speed to exploit either approach: they can slice you up with a battery of intermediate throws, and they have the jets to just go over those tacklers on the long shots.

Michigan vs. Oregon splits

Michigan is the only team in college football with a 0.0 point average scoring margin this season.

Oregon has fared better, averaging 20.7 points better than its opponents in 2024.

Over the last three games, those averages have diverged, as Oregon has played 21.7 points better than its opponents in that time, while Michigan has been 5.7 points worse.

And those numbers separate again when it comes to the venue: Michigan is 4 points better than the opposition at home, while Oregon is 30.3 points better when playing on the road.

Michigan’s offense vs. Oregon’s defense

Michigan is averaging 21.5 points per game this season, ranking No. 97 nationally, compared to an Oregon defense that allows 15.9 points per game, good for 9th in FBS.

And the Wolverines come in at just 120th with 303.1 total yards per game of offensive output, while the Ducks are 14th in total defense, allowing 308.7 yards per game on average.

Michigan ranks 81st in FBS with 0.348 points per play on average this season, while Oregon is 8th in the nation by surrendering 0.245 points per play in 2024.

Michigan is also only 101st in the country with 4.9 yards per play on average, compared to a Ducks defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per play, ranking 19th.

When playing on third down, the Wolverines have converted 42 of 103 chances this season, for a success rate of 40.78 percent.

Oregon has allowed just 34 of 103 third down chances to be converted by opponents, coming out to a 33.01 percent success rate.

Michigan is efficient in the red zone, converting 14 of 17 opportunities into points for an 82.35 percent success rate, but those 17 chances are the third-fewest nationally.

Oregon has surrendered 18 of 22 red zone chances to be converted into points (81.82%).

Oregon’s offense vs. Michigan’s defense

Oregon is 16th in FBS this season averaging 36.6 points per game while the Michigan defense ranks 34th nationally by allowing 21.5 points per game.

And the Ducks are 9th this season averaging 464.4 total yards per game compared to a Wolverines defense that is 25th in surrendering 329.5 yards per game on average.

Oregon is averaging 0.553 points per play which is good for 12th in FBS this season, while Michigan is allowing 0.316 points per play on average, ranking 33rd.

On a per play basis, the Ducks enter this weekend ranked No. 6 nationally with 7 yards per play on average while the Wolverines allow 4.8 yards per play from opponents, ranking 25th.

Oregon is No. 8 among 134 FBS teams in third down offense, converting 47 of 94 chances for a 50 percent success rate while Michigan is 91st in third down defense, allowing 48 of 117 chances (41.03%).

When working from scoring position, Oregon has turned 29 of 34 red zone chances into points for an 85.29 percent success rate.

Of those scores, 24 were converted into touchdowns (70.59%).

Michigan has allowed 24 of 31 red zone chances to turn into points defensively this season, surrendering points on 77.42 percent of opportunities.

And 17 of those scores were touchdowns (54.84%).

What the analytics say

Most analytical models also suggest a comfortable victory for the Ducks on the road.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game in the majority 77.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 22.2 percent of sims.

Who is favored?

Oregon is a 14.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updates lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -720 and for Michigan at +490 to win outright.

Oregon vs. Michigan prediction: Who wins?

The absence of Michigan’s vertical game will afford the Ducks more opportunities to crowd the line of scrimmage with a rotation of able tacklers who can limit gains on the ground and prevent any breakaway runs from the Wolverines’ backs.

And while Michigan has the personnel to do the same to Oregon and bring some credible pressure from the front seven, the Ducks’ offensive line has recovered well enough from some early season struggles and should keep Gabriel clean in the pocket to find his outlets.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oregon wins 31-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Oregon vs. Michigan score prediction by expert model

How to watch Oregon vs. Michigan

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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