Oregon vs. Michigan score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Oregon vs. Michigan in this Week 10 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Oregon vs. Michigan football score prediction / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A notable Big Ten matchup finds defending champion Michigan playing host to title favorite No. 1 Oregon on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Oregon is one of college football’s few remaining undefeated teams, averaging five touchdowns per game and exactly 300 passing yards on average and out-scoring its last two opponents 73 to 9.

Michigan moved to 3-2 in Big Ten play after a win over rival Michigan State but still lacks for a vertical game, ranking 129th among 134 FBS teams in passing output and 110th in scoring.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Wolverines and Ducks meet in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Oregon compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Oregon vs. Michigan score prediction

So far, the models suggest a comfortable victory for the Ducks over the Wolverines.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 32 to 19 and to win the matchup by an expected margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Ducks a 78 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Oregon vs. Michigan picks, odds

Oregon is a 14.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updates lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -720 and for Michigan at +490 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Michigan +14.5
• Oregon to win -720
• Bet over 45.5 points

So far, a plurality of bettors are taking a different line, expecting the Ducks to dominate the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 66 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.

The other 34 percent of wagers project Michigan will either win outright in the upset, or will keep the game under 2 touchdowns in a loss.

Oregon vs. Michigan splits

Michigan is the only team in college football with a 0.0 point average scoring margin this season.

Oregon has fared better, averaging 20.7 points better than its opponents in 2024.

Over the last three games, those averages have diverged, as Oregon has played 21.7 points better than its opponents in that time, while Michigan has been 5.7 points worse.

And those numbers separate again when it comes to the venue: Michigan is 4 points better than the opposition at home, while Oregon is 30.3 points better when playing on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also suggest a comfortable victory for the Ducks on the road.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game in the majority 77.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 22.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Ducks came out ahead in 15,560 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wolverines edged out Oregon in the other 4,440 of the predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Oregon is projected to be 11.3 points better than Michigan on the same field in the latest simulations of the game, and of both teams head to head, according to that model’s forecast.

Oregon vs. Michigan future predictions

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 87.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Ducks a win total prediction of 11.6 games this season.

Michigan ranks seventh in the Big Ten with a 0.1 percent shot at the playoff, but should be in the postseason, at 88.3 percent likely to play in a bowl game.

The index forecasts UM will win 6.3 games in ‘24.

How to watch Oregon vs. Michigan

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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