Oregon vs. Michigan State football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan State by the football model that picks winners.

Oregon vs. Michigan State football prediction / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

A new-look Big Ten football game brought to us by conference realignment gets underway early this week as No. 6 Oregon welcomes Michigan State in college football’s Week 6 action on Friday.

After playing close games early this season, the Ducks have rebounded to knock out Oregon State and UCLA in successive statement victories, while the Spartans have lost two straight against Boston College and Ohio State.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oregon vs. Michigan State predictions

As expected, the models are big fans of the Ducks in this Big Ten home tilt.

Oregon is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 92.4 percent of the computer’s simulations.

That leaves Michigan State as the expected winner in the remaining 7.6 percent of sims.

Oregon is projected to be 22.7 points better than Michigan State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread in this one.

That’s because Oregon is a 24 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -2500 and for Michigan State at +1200 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors are actually expecting the Spartans will keep this close.

Around 51 percent of bets project Michigan State will either win in an upset or, more likely, keep the game within the line.

The remaining 49 percent of wagers expect Oregon will win the game and cover the spread.

Oregon is second among Big Ten teams with a 60.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects Michigan State will win 5.4 games and has a 45.4 percent shot at becoming bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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