Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Oregon hosts Michigan State in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

A new-look Big Ten matchup goes under the lights as Michigan State hits the West Coast in a battle against No. 6 Oregon in college football’s Week 6 action on Friday night. Let’s make an update to our prediction for the game.

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is familiar with the Ducks, having coached at Oregon State prior to his move to the Big Ten, winning 2 of his 7 matchups against Oregon in the Civil War.

The Spartans opened up the season with 3 straight wins, but dropped games against Boston College and Ohio State, falling to 1-1 in Big Ten play and 3-2 overall, with big road games still yet to come, including against Iowa and Michigan.

Oregon started off a little slow this season in a pair of closely-fought games won by a combined 13 points, but rebounded in more dominant victories against Oregon State and UCLA and is looking for another strong showing as Ohio State comes to Eugene next weekend in a huge Big Ten clash.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Oregon welcomes Michigan State, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction: What to watch

1. Establish the run. Despite Oregon’s relative improvement on offense the last 2 games, there is still some inconsistent play on the line, albeit hampered by some injuries and rotation up front, when it comes to opening rushing lanes, resulting in the team ranking just 76th nationally in rushing production, good for 13th among 18 Big Ten teams.

2. Sparty can bring it. Oregon’s protection will be challenged by a Michigan State front seven that is a team strength, so far this season racking up a solid 15 sacks and 35 tackles for loss. Khris Bogle and Anthony Jones are the line’s sack masters and linebacker Jordan Turner has 3 sacks.

3. Turnovers. Michigan State is struggling to hold onto the football this season, turning the ball over to the opposition 13 times this season, ranking third nationally in that category. Aidan Chiles’ 8 interceptions are a big part of that, and the Spartans are 126th in FBS with a minus-1.4 turnover margin per game and 128th with a minus-7 margin overall.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are siding with the Ducks over the Spartans this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is projected to win the game in 92.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Michigan State as the expected winner in the remaining 7.5 percent of sims.

Oregon is projected to be 22.7 points better than Michigan State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Oregon vs. Spartans prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Oregon is a 23.5 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -2500 and for Michigan State at +1200 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bets predict the Ducks will handle the Spartans, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

About 52 percent of bettors expect Oregon will win the game and cover the big point spread.

And the remaining 48 percent of wagers predict the Spartans will make this closer than the line suggests.

Oregon vs. Michigan State prediction

Jonathan Smith still has Michigan State in the rebuilding process, and while his efforts on the defensive side of the ball have been admirable so far, the inability of this offense to keep pace with the Ducks’ skill threats will prove too much to handle.

Whatever issues Oregon might have early on running the ball behind a line in transition and against a decent Spartans front, it still has Dillon Gabriel, an obscenely productive 82 percent passer, dealing to a rotation of receivers who should skirt around MSU’s back seven with ease.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oregon wins 38-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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