Oregon vs. Oregon State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Oregon vs. Oregon State in this Week 3 college football game.

Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Prediction / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Civil War is back on this weekend but as a non-conference game after realignment, as No. 9 ranked and Big Ten contender Oregon squares off against Oregon State, one of two remaining Pac-12 teams, in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Oregon State will be joined by four Mountain West teams two years from now after another expansion move, and is 2-0 after victories over Idaho State and future conference opponent San Diego State, ranking 5th nationally by rushing for just under 300 yards per game so far.

A preseason contender for the Big Ten title, Oregon has played under expectations, and although perfect through two games, those wins came by a combined 13 points with questions on both lines of scrimmage, especially after a close game at home against Boise State.

As a result, the Ducks have fallen steadily in the AP poll, starting out at No. 3 in the country in the preseason, but falling down six positions as voters grow concerned about the product on the field.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Oregon State compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Oregon vs. Oregon State score prediction

The simulations favor the Ducks to stay undefeated with a win on the road in this rivalry.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Oregon State by a projected score of 36 to 23 and to win the game by an expected 13.4 points.

The model gives the Ducks a strong 80 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Oregon is a 16.5 point favorite against Oregon State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -820 to win outright and for Oregon State at +550.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oregon State +16.5
• Ducks to win -820
• Bet over 50.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Ducks to win the Civil War game this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is projected to win the game outright in 68.7 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Oregon State comes out the expected winner in the remaining 31.3 percent of sims.

The index projects that Oregon will be 7.4 points better than Oregon State on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover the spread.

Oregon will win 8.7 games this season and places fourth among Big Ten teams with a 29.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the model's latest projections.

Those calculations suggest Oregon State will win 8.1 games and has an 8.2 percent shot to make the 12-team playoff.

Oregon vs. Oregon State game time

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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