Oregon vs. Purdue football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Oregon vs. Purdue by the football model that picks winners.

Oregon vs. Purdue football prediction / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One of the Big Ten’s new conference matchups kicks off this Friday night as No. 2 Oregon hits the road against Purdue in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert football model that picks winners.

Oregon is coming off the signature win of head coach Dan Lanning’s tenure, edging Ohio State by a single point a week ago, moving to 6-0 overall and a statement 3-0 mark in Big Ten play.

Purdue is on a 5-game losing streak, although it came within a point of upsetting ranked Illinois in overtime last weekend, but still ranks 101st nationally in scoring offense and 109th in passing output, although a quarterback change to Ryan Browne could boost those averages, as he threw for nearly 300 yards last week.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oregon vs. Purdue predictions

As expected, the Ducks are big favorites against the Boilermakers by the model’s calculations.

Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 95.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.

The index also suggests a comfortable margin for the Ducks on the scoreboard in this game.

Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks to cover a big spread against the Boilermakers.

That’s because Oregon is a 27.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning it would need to win by 4 touchdowns to cover the line.

FanDuel set the total at 60.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Oregon at -3000 and for Purdue at +1300 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bets currently suggest the Ducks will dominate the Boilermakers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 55 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Purdue will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score within 4 touchdowns in a loss.

Oregon vs. Purdue projections

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Purdue a win total prediction of 1.7 games, the lowest mark in the Big Ten, and a 0 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

The index forecasts that Oregon is 19.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, according to its latest calculations.

But it estimates that Purdue is 9.7 points worse than opponents in a similar setting, one of four Big Ten teams to come out in negative numbers in that category.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks