Oregon vs. Purdue score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Oregon vs. Purdue in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Oregon vs. Purdue score prediction / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

One of the Big Ten’s new-look conference matchups brought to us by realignment kicks off as No. 2 Oregon hits the road against Purdue in college football’s Week 8 action on Friday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from a proven model that picks winners.

Oregon moved to 6-0 and a perfect 3-0 mark in Big Ten play after a statement win over Ohio State last week heading into this road game across the country against the Boilermakers.

Purdue has dropped 5 straight and played a poor offense across the board, sitting at 0-3 in Big Ten games, but will make a change at quarterback in favor of Ryan Browne, who threw for almost 300 yards last week in backup work.

What do the analytics suggest for this Big Ten matchup?

Let’s check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Purdue compare heading into this Week 8 college football game.

Oregon vs. Purdue score prediction

So far, the models are siding strongly with the Ducks over the Boilermakers.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 43 to 17 and win the game by an expected margin of 25.6 points.

The model gives the Ducks a near-universal 95 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Oregon vs. Purdue odds, picks

Oregon is a 27.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 61.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Oregon at -3000 and for Purdue at +1300 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Purdue +27.5
• Oregon to win -3000
• Bet under 61.5 points

A slight majority of bets project the Ducks will handle the Boilermakers easily, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Oregon is getting 53 percent of wagers to win the game and cover the spread.

Purdue received 47 percent of bets to either pull off the upset at home, or more likely, to keep the game under 4 touchdowns.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Ducks will easily defeat the Boilermakers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 95 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 5 percent of sims.

Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast, also not enough to cover the spread.

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects a win total of 1.7 games for the Boilermakers, the lowest mark in the Big Ten, and a 0.0 percent chance to play any preseason football.

How to watch Oregon vs. Purdue 

When: Fri., Oct. 18
Time: 8 p.m. ET | 5 p.m. PT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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