Oregon vs. Purdue prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Oregon and Purdue meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Oregon vs. Purdue Prediction / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A pair of new Big Ten rivals square off in college football’s early Week 8 action as No. 2 Oregon hits the road to take on Purdue on Friday night. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Oregon played below expectation to start the season, winning its first two games by 13 combined points, but has improved since then, culminating in a signature victory over Ohio State that gives the team an inside track in the Big Ten championship picture.

Purdue fell to 0-3 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss to ranked Illinois last week, and will start Ryan Browne at quarterback in a bid to rejuvenate its offense as the team looks to stem an ugly five-game losing streak that includes 3 games allowing more than 50 points.

What can we expect from the matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as Oregon and Purdue meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Oregon vs. Purdue prediction: What to watch

1. Spoilermakers. Purdue has a habit of upsetting highly-ranked teams recently, winning 7 games against ranked opponents in the last 6 years, including 3 victories against teams ranked in the top-three, and 9 total wins against teams in the top-two, the most of any school in the poll era. Ranked teams are in danger when they line up against Purdue.

2. Establish the run. While the Boilermakers will struggle when Oregon puts the ball in the air, its real weakness is on the ground, ranking 127th in FBS in run defense, allowing 229 yards per game on average, more than 5.3 yards per carry from opposing backs, and 19 touchdowns.

3. At the line. Oregon has markedly improved its blocking coordination since a sloppy start on the offensive line to begin the season, but the Boilermakers can generate a decent pass rush from time to time off the edges, as the duo of Will Heldt and Kydran Jenkins has combined for 14 sacks and can get after the Ducks’ outside blockers.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models predictably side with the Ducks over the Boilermakers in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Oregon comes out ahead in the majority 95.1 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.

And the index forecasts a big margin of victory, as Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Oregon vs. Purdue prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Oregon is a 28 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 60.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -4000 and for Purdue at +1800 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors are siding with the Ducks to handle the Boilermakers with ease, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 52 percent support from bettors to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers project that Purdue will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, keep the score under 4 touchdowns.

Oregon vs. Purdue prediction: Who wins?

The talent discrepancy between these teams prevents us from calling this an outright trap game, but having to travel a long distance on a short week against an ostensibly overmatched opponent after winning the game of your life are credible warning signs, especially given Purdue’s recent history as an upset agent.

The switch at quarterback has given the Boilermakers’ offense some life, albeit in a limited sample size, but it’s hard to see the Ducks’ back seven getting beat too often by these receiving threats.

Oregon has the playmakers to flatten the Boilers at its pleasure, but other considerations could play into this being a more low-scoring game.

The dismal state of Purdue’s run defense will be too inviting for Oregon’s balanced offense to not take advantage of, and after building a 2 or 3 touchdown lead, we could see Dan Lanning shift the offense into neutral and slow the game down to get out with a win.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oregon wins 37-13
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Oregon vs. Purdue score prediction by expert model

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