Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks prediction: Who wins the Big Ten Championship Game, and why?

What to watch for as Oregon and Penn State meet in the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Oregon vs. Penn State prediction for the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Here’s what you need to know as Oregon and Penn State square off in the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night, with our prediction for the matchup.

Oregon comes into Championship Saturday as college football’s last undefeated team in the FBS ranks and the projected No. 1 seed in the selection committee’s most recent bracket.

But that can change if the Nittany Lions pull off the upset, either inheriting the Ducks’ top seed or taking the No. 2 spot if the selectors decide to value the SEC champion more.

Either way, the winner of this game will get the enormous luxury of not having to play in the first round of the College Football Playoff, while the loser gets a first round game at home.

What can we expect as Oregon and Penn State meet in the Big Ten Championship Game? Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction.

Oregon vs. Penn State prediction: What to watch for

1. In the air. Penn State’s vertical game behind quarterback Drew Allar has steadily improved this year and remains quite efficient, completing 72 percent of its passes with 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Key to that success is the highly-versatile 6-foot-6 tight end Tyler Warren, good for over 12 yards per catch with 6 touchdowns, rushing for 4 additional scores, and is a Swiss Army knife of sorts for this offense who can break the game open on a single play.

Now they’re going against an Oregon defense that is 9th in FBS and allowed just 9 passing TDs all year, but has proven susceptible to chunk plays downfield at times, too, and can be tested.

2. At the line. Oregon’s offensive line has struggled at times this season, but the unit has to play its best game of the year against a Penn State run stop that is 2nd nationally in allowing just 5 rushing touchdowns all year.

Jordan James, the Ducks’ lead back, is a consistent gainer on the ground, averaging 5.7 yards per rush with 13 touchdowns, and can do some damage if he goes uncontested at the point of attack.

3. Going deep. Oregon’s signature win of the season, against Ohio State, came as the offense repeatedly tested the Buckeyes’ talented secondary defenses with a battery of aggressive midrange and progressively deeper passes, and eventually that coverage gave way.

Targets like Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart give the Ducks a marked advantage when going against Penn State’s defensive back seven, spearheading an offense that is top 15 nationally in passing and receiving output.

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Who is favored?

Oregon is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -106, Under -114).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -170 and for Penn State at +140 to win outright.

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Penn State vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

Oregon’s defensive front has held up well against more overmatched competition in the Big Ten, but did have some troubling moments against better backs like Ashton Jeanty and TreVeyon Henderson.

And it could again going opposite Penn State’s two-headed backfield of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who together comprise a ground attack good for 5.11 yards per carry and 26 touchdowns while covering almost 195 yards per game on average.

Penn State’s best chance for the upset is to employ its backs early and often and take down some of the game clock, keeping Oregon’s offense off the field.

And of course, cashing in from scoring position: the Nittany Lions are solid there, scoring 38 touchdowns in the red zone. The problem? Oregon is 8th in red zone defense, allowing just 18 TDs.

But the Ducks have what could prove an overwhelming advantage at the wide receiver position, boasting variety, perimeter speed, and yards after the catch potential, and they’re working with one of the sport’s most historically-productive quarterbacks.

If Oregon’s defense can contain Penn State all-star Tyler Warren while attacking the deep field and hold things down moderately well against the run, it’ll leave Indy as the No. 1 seed in the playoff.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oregon wins 34-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Oregon vs. Penn State score prediction by football model

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How to watch the Big Ten Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Indianapolis, Ind.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 5 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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