Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for as Penn State and Boise State meet in the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. Boise State football prediction / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Penn State and Boise State are set to meet in the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal round with a chance to move into the semifinal round. Here’s what you should watch for, with our prediction for the game.

Boise State earned the first round bye after winning the Mountain West championship and comes into this matchup boasting a historic rushing attack behind a Heisman finalist running back.

Penn State played the first round at home, smashing ACC challenger SMU in a 38-10 rout in which the Nittany Lions’ defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns.

What can we expect as the Nittany Lions and Broncos face off for a chance at the semifinal round?

Here’s what you should watch for as Penn State and Boise State meet in the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. It’s no secret that Ashton Jeanty is the engine that makes Boise State’s offense go. The lead back is just 132 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season NCAA record for rushing with 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year as a Heisman Trophy finalist.

But now he’s running into one of the nation’s premier rush defenses. Penn State ranks top 10 nationally in most defensive categories, but is especially strong against the run, ranking No. 4 in FBS this year by allowing just 100 yards on the ground per game to opposing backs.

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2. PSU’s Swiss Army knife. Penn State tight end Tyler Warren emerged as one of college football’s best overall players and arguably the best at his position in the country.

Warren caught 92 passes for 1,095 yards and scored 6 touchdowns, rushing for another 4 scores out of the backfield, and can be used almost anywhere on the field, including a highlight reel play at center.

He highlights a Penn State receiving corps that should find some angles against a Boise State pass defense that ranks just 109th among 134 FBS teams this season, allowing more than 240 yards per game.

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3. Get to the QB. Boise State protects its quarterback well, ranking in the top dozen nationally in negative plays allowed, under four per game, and is eighth in surrendering under one sack on average, crucial to developing its passing attack to complement Jeanty’s production on the ground.

Penn State was the Big Ten’s most productive defensive front when it came to forcing plays behind the line, recording 102 tackles for loss this season, and should be the most imposing threat the Broncos’ blockers go up against this year.

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Who is favored?

Penn State is an 11.5 point favorite against Boise State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -430 and for Boise State at +330 to win outright.

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Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: Who wins?

Turnover margins should keep this game close throughout. Penn State has given the ball away 13 times, while Boise State is second in FBS with just eight total giveaways.

And while the Broncos have the blockers and the back to test the Nittany Lions’ solid rush defense at the line, Penn State has the weapons to get past Boise State’s secondary.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 33-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Penn State vs. Boise State score prediction by football model

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How to watch the 2024 Fiesta Bowl Game

When: Tues., Dec. 31
Where: Glendale, Ariz.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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