Penn State vs. Boise State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Boise State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State vs. Boise State football score prediction 2024 / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State and Boise State face off in the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal game on New Year’s Eve. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Penn State dominated SMU in the first round game at home, smashing challenger SMU by a 38-10 count in which the defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns, and ranking 7th nationally by allowing just under 16 points from opponents on average this season.

Boise State earned the first round bye as Mountain West champions, playing to a 12-1 record behind the historic work of tailback Ashton Jeanty, who comes into this game just 131 yards shy of breaking Barry Sanders’ NCAA record for single-season rushing production.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Nittany Lions and Broncos face off in the playoff?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Boise State compare in this College Football Playoff quarterfinal round game.

Penn State vs. Boise State score prediction

So far, the model is siding pretty strongly with the Nittany Lions over the Group of Five challenger to advance to the semifinal round.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Boise State by a projected score of 33 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 11 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 77 percent chance of outright victory over the Broncos.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Fiesta Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Penn State is an 11.5 point favorite against Boise State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -450 and for Boise State at +340 to win outright.

If you’re betting on this game, you should take ...

• Boise State +11.5
• PSU to win -450
• Bet over 53.5 points

Most bettors are taking that position, expecting the Broncos will make this more of a game against the Nittany Lions, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Boise State is getting 60 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under 12 points in a loss.

The other 40 percent of wagers project Penn State will cover the spread and win by at least a dozen.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also expect the Nittany Lions will handle the Broncos in this quarterfinal playoff matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is a dominant favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 65.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

And while Boise State wasn’t projected to win, it did beat out PSU in the other 34.6 percent of the simulations of the game.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the contest?

When taking an average of all the simulations of the game, Penn State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Boise State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Fiesta Bowl Game

When: Tues., Dec. 31
Where: Glendale, Ariz.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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