Penn State vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Penn State vs. Illinois by the football model that picks winners.

Penn State vs. Illinois football prediction / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns under the lights from Happy Valley in a battle of ranked teams as No. 19 Illinois hits the road against No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

It’s the second-straight road game against a ranked conference foe for Illinois, which beat Nebraska at Memorial Stadium last Friday night, and comes into this matchup a very average 73rd and 75th, respectively, in passing and rushing production, but 15th in scoring defense.

Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen comprise the 10th best rushing offense in the nation, as Penn State averages 255 yards on the ground per game heading into the Big Ten opener coming off a 56-0 thrashing against Kent State last weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Penn State vs. Illinois prediction

So far, the simulations are favoring the home team in this matchup.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the majority 86.2 percent of the computer’s updated simulations for the game.

And that leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.8 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 16.9 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Nittany Lions to cover the spread.

That’s because Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 47.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -1000 and for Illinois at +700 to win outright.

But a majority of bettors currently expect Illinois to perform well in the game.

Three-quarters of bets, exactly 75 percent, suggest the Fighting Illini will either upset Penn State or keep the game within the point spread.

And the remaining 25 percent of wagers expect the Nittany Lions to win and cover the spread.

Penn State is projected to defeat Illinois by an implied score of 33 to 15 when taking the point spread and total into consideration.

The index ranks Penn State second among Big Ten teams with a 58.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and to win 10.2 games this season.

That model forecasts Illinois will win 8 games and has a 9.1 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks