Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: Who wins, and why?

Our updated prediction for Penn State vs. Illinois in this Week 5 college football game and Big Ten opener for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

A pair of ranked Big Ten rivals square off under the lights from Happy Valley this weekend as No. 19 Illinois pays a visit to No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday night.

Illinois is riding high through its first month, already boasting a win on the road against a ranked Big Ten opponent after outlasting Nebraska last Friday night, and beat then-ranked Kansas a few weeks ago, playing behind the nation’s 15th ranked scoring defense, allowing 12.5 points per game.

Drew Allar is finding his long game so far this season, almost doubling his yardage per pass from a year ago, and completing nearly 71 percent of his attempts. 

And he’s backed up by a ground attack that ranks 10th in FBS with 255 rushing yards per game behind one of the nation’s top 1-2 combos in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Penn State hosts Illinois in college football’s Week 5 tilt, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. Illinois prediction, preview

1. Test Illinois’ secondary. Penn State is playing an explosive brand of offense, even if the opponents have been more than generous. Allar leads an attack that averages 538 yards per game and scores 41.3 points on average. But the Illini will prove a worthwhile test in the Big Ten opener.

Illinois ranks 32nd nationally in total defense, allowing just under 293 yards per game and has the bodies to swarm around the line and limit ground gains while frustrating receiver connections with a brand of efficient man coverage. 

It can also get its hands on the football: Illinois has 7 interceptions this season, already matching the same number of picks it had all of last year.

Penn State likely won’t move the ball at will against this group and will want for opportunities when testing the deeper field. But the early returns on Allar’s deep game are promising, as he ranks 2nd nationally with 17.3 yards per completion.

2. Pressure the QB. Penn State’s defensive line is strong and well-rested as it lines up against Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer. While this offense doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, it is efficient. 

Altmyer is a 71 percent passer with 862 yards and no interceptions, averaging over 200 yards passing per game, and he has receivers in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin who can sneak behind coverages and make plays on the perimeter.

Defensive ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will generate pressure off the edges, but Penn State can also create some impactful mismatches on the interior of the line and can force Altmyer out of the pocket and throw the whole offense off schedule.

3. Battle at the line. Despite being a strong unit on paper, the Penn State front seven is yet to really leave a mark when it comes to producing results. Part of that is opposing offenses getting the ball out quickly, but the Nittany Lions still only have 4 sacks in the first month of the season. Illinois ranks just 94th among FBS teams by allowing 2.3 sacks per game.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models project the Nittany Lions will handle things in the Big Ten opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 86.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.7 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 17 points better than Illinois on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points in the game.

And its set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -1100 and for Illinois at +680 to win outright.

Most bettors expect this to be a closer game than the point spread suggests.

A majority of bets, 75 percent, predict that Illinois will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

The remaining 25 percent of wagers expect Penn State will win the game and cover the spread.

Penn State vs. Illinois prediction

Strange things happen at Happy Valley when the sun goes down. Just ask Iowa, which was expected to keep it close against the Nittany Lions last season, but who got plastered instead.

The difference between then and now is two-fold: Illinois has a much better offense than that Iowa team did, and Penn State is better at testing the deeper field than it was a year ago.

Illinois’ line will be tested more than it has been up to now, which will have a negative effect on Altmyer’s rhythm, but he can adjust by getting the ball out faster, and he has the receivers to bail him out with some decent yards after the catch to keep drives going.

But the Nittany Lions still have the decided advantage when running the ball, a phase of this offense that is compounded by Allar’s burgeoning confidence in his vertical game.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 31-17
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More: Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Illinois vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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