Penn State vs. Kent State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Kent State in this Week 4 college football game.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Prediction / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of college football's worst-producing teams goes on the road into Big Ten Country as Kent State faces off against No. 10 Penn State in the NCAA's Week 4 football action on Saturday.

Penn State is 2-0 and coming off an idle week, but played close at home for most of its 34-27 victory against Bowling Green, another MAC challenger that put up 375 total yards in that game.

Kent State isn't expected to be as much of a challenge, at 0-3 overall and coming off a 71-0 loss at Tennessee last week, ranking 123rd in passing, 132nd in rushing, 127th in scoring offense, and dead-last nationally in scoring defense, allowing almost 50 points per game.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup this weekend?

For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Penn State and Kent State compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Penn State vs. Kent State score prediction

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Nittany Lions to dominate at home.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Kent State by a projected score of 50 to 0 and to win the game by an expected 49.8 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a perfect 100 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Penn State is a 48.5 point favorite against Kent State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State -48.5
• Bet under 56.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Nittany Lions will cruise against this MAC team.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State comes out the expected winner in 99 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves Kent State as the expected winner in the remaining 1 percent of sims.

The model predicts that Penn State will be 50.4 points better than Kent State on the same field, enough to cover this spread.

Penn State will win 9.8 games this season and sits third among Big Ten teams with a 47 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI's metrics.

That model gives Kent State a 0.1 percent chance to become bowl eligible and projects the team will win just 1.3 games this season.

Penn State vs. Kent State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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